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Why Bayes Rules: A Note on Bayesian vs. Classical Inference in Regime Switching Models

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  • Dennis Gaertner

    ()
    (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich)

Abstract

By means of a very simple example, this note illustrates the appeal of using Bayesian rather than classical methods to produce inference on hidden states in models of Markovian regime switching.

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File URL: http://www.soi.uzh.ch/research/wp/2007/wp0719.pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich in its series SOI - Working Papers with number 0719.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:soz:wpaper:0719

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Related research

Keywords: Bayesian analysis; switching regression; regime changes; nonlinear filtering;

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References

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  1. Stefan Boes, 2007. "Count Data Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity: An Empirical Likelihood Approach," SOI - Working Papers 0704, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  2. Dario Sacco & Armin Schmutzler, 2008. "Competition and Innovation: An Experimental Investigation," SOI - Working Papers 0807, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  3. Johannes Schwarze & Rainer Winkelmann, 2005. "What Can Happiness Research Tell Us about Altruism?: Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 475, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Dennis Gaertner, 2007. "Monopolistic Screening under Learning By Doing," SOI - Working Papers 0718, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  5. Dennis Gaertner & Armin Schmutzler, 2006. "Merger Negotiations and Ex-Post Regret," SOI - Working Papers 0607, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Dec 2007.
  6. Adrian Bruhin & Rainer Winkelmann, 2007. "Happiness Functions with Preference Interdependence and Heterogeneity: The Case of Altruism within the Family," SOI - Working Papers 0702, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Feb 2008.
  7. Hans Gersbach & Armin Schmutzler, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment and R&D offshoring," SOI - Working Papers 0606, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  8. Mahler, Philippe & Winkelmann, Rainer, 2004. "Single Motherhood and (Un)Equal Educational Opportunities: Evidence for Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1391, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Adrian Bruhin & Helga Fehr-Duda & Thomas Epper, 2007. "Risk and Rationality: Uncovering Heterogeneity in Probability Distortion," SOI - Working Papers 0705, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Jul 2007.
  10. Helga Fehr-Duda & Adrian Bruhin & Thomas Epper & Renate Schubert, 2010. "Rationality on the rise: Why relative risk aversion increases with stake size," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 147-180, April.
  11. Felix Schlaepfer, 2007. "An analysis of the Swiss vote on the use of genetically modified crops," SOI - Working Papers 0717, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  12. Schmutzler, Armin, 2010. "The relation between competition and innovation -- Why is it such a mess?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Rafael Lalive & Armin Schmutzler, 2006. "Entry in liberalized railway markets: The German experience," SOI - Working Papers 0609, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Apr 2007.
  14. Stefan Boes & Rainer Winkelmann, 2006. "The Effect of Income on Positive and Negative Subjective Well-Being," SOI - Working Papers 0605, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  15. Halbheer, Daniel & Fehr, Ernst & Goette, Lorenz & Schmutzler, Armin, 2009. "Self-reinforcing market dominance," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 481-502, November.
  16. Fabian Waltert & Felix Schlaepfer, 2007. "The role of landscape amenities in regional development: a survey of migration, regional economic and hedonic pricing studies," SOI - Working Papers 0710, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  17. Stefan Buehler & Armin Schmutzler, 2005. "On The Role of Access Charges Under Network Competition," SOI - Working Papers 0501, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  18. Helga Fehr & Thomas Epper & Adrian Bruhin & Renate Schubert, 2007. "Risk and Rationality: The Effect of Incidental Mood on Probability Weighting," SOI - Working Papers 0703, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  19. Yves Schneider & Peter Zweifel, 2005. "Spatial Effects in Willingness-to-Pay: The Case of Two Nuclear Risks," SOI - Working Papers 0502, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Sep 2007.
  20. Gersbach, Hans & Schmutzler, Armin, 2007. "Does Globalization Create Superstars?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Felix Schlaepfer, 2007. "Contingent valuation: a new perspective," SOI - Working Papers 0715, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  22. Lalive, Rafael & Schmutzler, Armin, 2008. "Exploring the effects of competition for railway markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 443-458, March.
  23. Stefan Boes & Markus Lipp & Rainer Winkelmann, 2005. "Money Illusion Under Test," SOI - Working Papers 0514, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  24. Hans Gersbach & Armin Schmutzler, 2006. "A Product-Market Theory of Industry-Specific Training," SOI - Working Papers 0610, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  25. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  26. Stefan Buehler & Christian Kaiser & Franz Jaeger, 2007. "On the Geographic and Cultural Determinants of Bankruptcy," SOI - Working Papers 0701, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Jun 2007.
  27. Stefan Boes & Kevin Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2007. "Hedonic Adaptation to Living Standards and the Hidden Cost of Parental Income," SOI - Working Papers 0713, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  28. Stefan Boes, 2007. "Nonparametric Analysis of Treatment Effects in Ordered Response Models," SOI - Working Papers 0709, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ilja Neustadt & Peter Zweifel, 2009. "Economic Well-Being, Social Mobility, and Preferences for Income Redistribution: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment," SOI - Working Papers 0909, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich, revised Jan 2010.
  2. Dario Sacco & Armin Schmutzler, 2008. "Competition and Innovation: An Experimental Investigation," SOI - Working Papers 0807, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  3. Adrian Bruhin, 2008. "Stochastic Expected Utility and Prospect Theory in a Horse Race: A Finite Mixture Approach," SOI - Working Papers 0803, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  4. Maurus Rischatsch, 2009. "Simulating WTP Values from Random-Coefficient Models," SOI - Working Papers 0912, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  5. Sandra Hanslin, 2008. "The effect of trade openness on optimal government size under endogenous firm entry," SOI - Working Papers 0802, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  6. Maurus Rischatsch & Maria Trottmann, 2009. "Physician dispensing and the choice between generic and brand-name drugs – Do margins affect choice?," SOI - Working Papers 0911, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  7. Josef Falkinger, 2008. "Between Agora and Shopping Mall," SOI - Working Papers 0805, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  8. Dario Sacco & Armin Schmutzler, 2008. "All-Pay Auctions with Negative Prize Externalities: Theory and Experimental Evidence," SOI - Working Papers 0806, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.

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