This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Risk and Rationality: Uncovering Heterogeneity in Probability Distortion

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Adrian Bruhin () (Socioeconomic Institute, University of ZurichAuthor-Name: Helga Fehr, Institute of Economic Research, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich)
Thomas Epper () (Institute of Economic Research, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

It has long been recognized that there is considerable heterogeneity in individual risk taking behavior but little is known about the distribution of risk taking types. We present a parsimonious characterization of risk taking behavior by estimating a finite mixture regression model for three different experimental data sets, two Swiss and one Chinese, over a large number of real gains and losses. We find two distinct types of individuals: In all three data sets, the choices of roughly 80% of the subjects exhibit significant deviations from rational probability weighting consistent with prospect theory. 20% of the subjects weight probabilities linearly and behave essentially as expected value maximizers. Moreover, the individuals are assigned to one of these two groups with probabilities of close to one resulting in a low measure of entropy. The reliability and robustness of our classification suggest using a mix of preference theories in applied economic modeling.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.soi.uzh.ch/research/wp/2007/wp0705.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: Revised version, 2007
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute in its series Working Papers with number 0705.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision: Jul 2007
Handle: RePEc:soz:wpaper:0705

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Bl�mlisalpstrasse 10, CH-8006 Z�rich
Phone: +41-1-634 22 05
Fax: +41-1-634 49 07
Email:
Web page: http://www.soi.uzh.ch/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Harry Telser).

Related research
Keywords: individual risk taking behavior; latent heterogeneity; finite mixture regression models;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Rafael Lalive & Armin Schmutzler, 2005. "Exploring the Effects of Competition for Railway Markets," Working Papers 0511, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Dario Sacco & Armin Schmutzler, 2008. "Competition and Innovation: An Experimental Investigation," Working Papers 0807, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lukas Steinmann & Harry Telser & Peter Zweifel, 2005. "The Impact of Aging on Future Healthcare Expenditure," Working Papers 0510, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sandra Hanslin, 2008. "The effect of trade openness on optimal government size under endogenous firm entry," Working Papers 0802, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Stefan Boes, 2007. "Nonparametric Analysis of Treatment Effects in Ordered Response Models," Working Papers 0709, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  6. Johannes Schoder & Peter Zweifel, 2008. "Managed Care Konzepte und Lösungsansätze– Ein internationaler Vergleich aus schweizerischer Sicht," Working Papers 0801, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  7. Galarza, Francisco, 2009. "Choices under Risk in Rural Peru," MPRA Paper 17708, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dennis Gaertner, 2007. "Monopolistic Screening under Learning By Doing," Working Papers 0718, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Josef Falkinger, 2008. "Between Agora and Shopping Mall," Working Papers 0805, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Helga Fehr-Duda & Adrian Bruhin & Thomas Epper & Renate Schubert, 2007. "Rationality on the Rise: Why Relative Risk Aversion Increases with Stake Size," Working Papers 0708, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  11. Adrian Bruhin, 2008. "Stochastic Expected Utility and Prospect Theory in a Horse Race: A Finite Mixture Approach," Working Papers 0803, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dennis Gaertner, 2007. "Why Bayes Rules: A Note on Bayesian vs. Classical Inference in Regime Switching Models," Working Papers 0719, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  13. Dario Sacco & Armin Schmutzler, 2008. "All-Pay Auctions with Negative Prize Externalities: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 0806, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  14. Daniel Halbheer & Ernst Fehr & Lorenz Goette & Armin Schmutzler, 2007. "Self-Reinforcing Market Dominance," Working Papers 0711, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Each page is provided with a technical contact, in case something is not right with the supplied information. See under "publisher info".

This page was last updated on 2009-11-4.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.