A Forecast Simulation Analysis of the Next-Generation DVD Market Based on Consumer Preference Data
AbstractJust as standards wars over formats had characterized VCRs upon introduction to the market, the next-generation DVD standards war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD lasted six years before Blu-Ray won the contest. Beginning with stated preference data drawn from a structured conjoint survey conducted before Blu-Ray became the de facto standard of the next-generation DVD format, we estimated consumer preferences on digital video players. A Bayesian mixed-logit model was used and market share simulations were conducted under various scenarios based on estimated parameters to surmise the future South Korean digital video-player market. Results indicate that consumers feel that network size and title availability are more important than hardware-related facets of the product, such as definition and storage capacity. The level of title availability and price of the Blu-Ray player for Blu-Ray¡¯s dominance over DVD will vary by the penetration rate of DVD players.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP) in its series TEMEP Discussion Papers with number 200933.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision: Nov 2009
Next-generation DVD; de facto standard; mixed logit; market share simulation; standard competition grade; willingness to pay; relative importance.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- L15 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Information and Product Quality
- L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-01-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2010-01-10 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-MKT-2010-01-10 (Marketing)
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