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A Forecast Simulation Analysis of the Next-Generation DVD Market Based on Consumer Preference Data

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  • Jongsu Lee
  • Jae Young Choi

    ()

  • Youngsang Cho

    (Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP); Seoul National University)

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    Abstract

    Just as standards wars over formats had characterized VCRs upon introduction to the market, the next-generation DVD standards war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD lasted six years before Blu-Ray won the contest. Beginning with stated preference data drawn from a structured conjoint survey conducted before Blu-Ray became the de facto standard of the next-generation DVD format, we estimated consumer preferences on digital video players. A Bayesian mixed-logit model was used and market share simulations were conducted under various scenarios based on estimated parameters to surmise the future South Korean digital video-player market. Results indicate that consumers feel that network size and title availability are more important than hardware-related facets of the product, such as definition and storage capacity. The level of title availability and price of the Blu-Ray player for Blu-Ray¡¯s dominance over DVD will vary by the penetration rate of DVD players.

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    File URL: ftp://147.46.237.98/DP-33.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP) in its series TEMEP Discussion Papers with number 200933.

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    Length: 25 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2009
    Date of revision: Nov 2009
    Handle: RePEc:snv:dp2009:200933

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    Related research

    Keywords: Next-generation DVD; de facto standard; mixed logit; market share simulation; standard competition grade; willingness to pay; relative importance.;

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    1. Farrell, Joseph & Saloner, Garth, 1987. "Coordination Through Committees and Markets," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5sn4b6v4, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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    5. Yeonbae Kim & Yuri Park & Jeong-Dong Lee & Jongsu Lee, 2006. "Using stated-preference data to measure the inconvenience cost of spam among Korean E-mail users," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 795-800.
    6. Roe, Brian & Boyle, Kevin J. & Teisl, Mario F., 1996. "Using Conjoint Analysis to Derive Estimates of Compensating Variation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 145-159, September.
    7. Sangin Park, 2004. "Quantitative Analysis of Network Externalities in Competing Technologies: The VCR Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 937-945, November.
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