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Does Weather Matter?

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  • Jian Hu

    ()
    (Southern Methodist University)

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Abstract

We use semi-parametric bin tests, regression analyses and copula modeling techniques to identify the relationship between temperature and stock market returns. After examining 25 international stock markets, we find that the negative correlation is statistically significant in individual countries, i.e. the higher is the temperature, the lower the stock returns. However, we fail to find joint significance of temperature effects across markets after correcting for market comovement by seemingly unrelated regression. We also find negative temperature effects on returns are robust to different measures of daily temperature. Both constant-dependence and time-varying-dependence conditional copula models are employed to analyze the general dependence between temperature and stock market returns. The copula results show that the negative relation remains after controlling for autocorrelations, GARCH effects and non-normality and the dependence between temperature and stock market returns is relatively stable over time.

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File URL: ftp://ftp1.economics.smu.edu/WorkingPapers/2008/Hu/Hu-2008-11-2.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 0809.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:smu:ecowpa:0809

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, P.O. Box 750496, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX 75275-0496
Phone: 214-768-2715
Fax: 214-768-1821
Web page: http://www.smu.edu/economics

Related research

Keywords: Stock market returns; Temperature; Copula.;

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  1. Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer & Maurice Levi, 2002. "Winter blues: a SAD stock market cycle," Working Paper 2002-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Andrew Patton, 2004. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," Working Papers wp04-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  3. David Hirshleifer & TYLER G. SHUMWAY, 2004. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Finance 0412004, EconWPA.
  4. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  5. Kamstra, M.J. & Kramer, L.A. & Levi, M.D., 1998. "Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight-Savings Anomaly," Discussion Papers dp98-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  6. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
  7. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
  8. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-45, December.
  9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
  10. Jacobsen, B. & Marquering, W.A., 2004. "Is it the weather?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-100-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  11. Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
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