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Dependence Structures in Chinese and U.S. Financial Markets: A Time-varying Conditional Copula Approach

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Author Info
Jian Hu () (Southern Methodist University)

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Abstract

In this paper, we use a Time-Varying Conditional Copula approach (TVCC) to model Chinese and U.S. stock markets‚ dependence structures with other financial markets. The AR-GARCH-t model is used to examine the marginals, while Normal and Generalized Joe-Clayton copula models are employed to analyze the joint distributions. In this pairwise analysis, both constant and time-varying conditional dependence parameters are estimated by a two-step maximum likelihood method. A comparative analysis of dependence structures in Chinese versus U.S. stock markets is also provided. There are three main findings: First, the time-varying-dependence model does not always perform better than constant-dependence model. This result has not previously been reported in the literature. Second, although previous research extensively reports that the lower tail dependence between stock markets tends to be higher than the upper tail dependence, we find a counterexample where the upper tail dependence is much higher than the lower tail dependence in some short periods. Last, Chinese financial market is relatively separate from other international financial markets in contrast to the U.S. market. The tail dependence with other financial markets is much lower in China than in the U.S.

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Paper provided by Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 0808.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision: Nov 2008
Handle: RePEc:smu:ecowpa:0808

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Postal: Department of Economics, P.O. Box 750496, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX 75275-0496
Phone: 214-768-2715
Fax: 214-768-1821
Web page: http://www.smu.edu/economics

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Related research
Keywords: AR-GARCH-t model; Time-varying conditional copula; Dependence structure; Stock market.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Sohnke M. Bartram & Gunter Dufey, 2001. "International Portfolio Investment: Theory, Evidence, and Institutional Framework," Finance 0107001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andrew Patton, 2001. "Estimation of Copula Models for Time Series of Possibly Different Length," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-17, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Flavin, Thomas J & Hurley, Margaret J & Rousseau, Fabrice, 2002. "Explaining Stock Market Correlation: A Gravity Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(0), pages 87-106, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2008. "New Evidence of Asymmetric Dependence Structures in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 787-815, September. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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