Dependence Structures in Chinese and U.S. Financial Markets: A Time-varying Conditional Copula Approach
AbstractIn this paper, we use a Time-Varying Conditional Copula approach (TVCC) to model Chinese and U.S. stock markets‚ dependence structures with other financial markets. The AR-GARCH-t model is used to examine the marginals, while Normal and Generalized Joe-Clayton copula models are employed to analyze the joint distributions. In this pairwise analysis, both constant and time-varying conditional dependence parameters are estimated by a two-step maximum likelihood method. A comparative analysis of dependence structures in Chinese versus U.S. stock markets is also provided. There are three main findings: First, the time-varying-dependence model does not always perform better than constant-dependence model. This result has not previously been reported in the literature. Second, although previous research extensively reports that the lower tail dependence between stock markets tends to be higher than the upper tail dependence, we find a counterexample where the upper tail dependence is much higher than the lower tail dependence in some short periods. Last, Chinese financial market is relatively separate from other international financial markets in contrast to the U.S. market. The tail dependence with other financial markets is much lower in China than in the U.S.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 0808.
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision: Nov 2008
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, P.O. Box 750496, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX 75275-0496
Web page: http://www.smu.edu/economics
AR-GARCH-t model; Time-varying conditional copula; Dependence structure; Stock market.;
Other versions of this item:
- Hu, Jian, 2008. "Dependence Structures in Chinese and U.S. Financial Markets -- A Time-varying Conditional Copula Approach," MPRA Paper 11401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
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