Asymptotic Distributions of the Least Squares Estimator for Diffusion Processes
AbstractThe asymptotic distributions of the least squares estimator of the mean reversion parameter (κ) are developed in a general class of diffusion models under three sampling schemes, namely, longspan, in-fill and the combination of long-span and in-fill. The models have an affine structure in the drift function, but allow for nonlinearity in the diffusion function. The limiting distributions are quite different under the alternative sampling schemes. In particular, the in-fill limiting distribution is non-standard and depends on the initial condition and the time span whereas the other two are Gaussian. Moreover, while the other two distributions are discontinuous at κ = 0, the in-fill distribution is continuous in κ. This property provides an answer to the Bayesian criticism to the unit root asymptotics. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the in-fill asymptotic distribution provides a more accurate approximation to the finite sample distribution than the other two distributions in empirically realistic settings. The empirical application using the U.S. Federal fund rates highlights the difference in statistical inference based on the alternative asymptotic distributions and suggests strong evidence of a unit root in the data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Singapore Management University, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 11-2012.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series
Other versions of this item:
- Qiankun Zhou & Jun Yu, 2010. "Asymptotic Distributions of the Least Squares Estimator for Diffusion Processes," Working Papers 20-2010, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-04-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2012-04-10 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-ORE-2012-04-10 (Operations Research)
- NEP-SEA-2012-04-10 (South East Asia)
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