Bias in estimating multivariate and univariate diffusions
AbstractMultivariate continuous time models are now widely used in economics and finance. Empirical applications typically rely on some process of discretization so that the system may be estimated with discrete data. This paper introduces a framework for discretizing linear multivariate continuous time systems that includes the commonly used Euler and trapezoidal approximations as special cases and leads to a general class of estimators for the mean reversion matrix. Asymptotic distributions and bias formulae are obtained for estimates of the mean reversion parameter. Explicit expressions are given for the discretization bias and its relationship to estimation bias in both multivariate and in univariate settings. In the univariate context, we compare the performance of the two approximation methods relative to exact maximum likelihood (ML) in terms of bias and variance for the Vasicek process. The bias and the variance of the Euler method are found to be smaller than the trapezoidal method, which are in turn smaller than those of exact ML. Simulations suggest that when the mean reversion is slow, the approximation methods work better than ML, the bias formulae are accurate, and for scalar models the estimates obtained from the two approximate methods have smaller bias and variance than exact ML. For the square root process, the Euler method outperforms the Nowman method in terms of both bias and variance. Simulation evidence indicates that the Euler method has smaller bias and variance than exact ML, Nowman's method and the Milstein method.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 161 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom
Bias Diffusion Euler approximation Trapezoidal approximation Milstein approximation;
Other versions of this item:
- Xiaohu Wang & Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Bias in Estimating Multivariate and Univariate Diffusions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1778, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981.
"The dimensionality of the aliasing problem in models with rational spectral densities,"
72, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J, 1983. "The Dimensionality of the Aliasing Problem in Models with Rational Spectral Densities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 377-87, March.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2007.
"Simulation-based Estimation of Contingent-claims Prices,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1596, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2009. "Simulation-Based Estimation of Contingent-Claims Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3669-3705, September.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2008. "Simulation-based Estimation of Contingent-claims Prices," Finance Working Papers 22473, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Peter C.B.Phillips & Jun Yu, . "Simulation-based Estimation of Contingent Claims Prices," Working Papers CoFie-05-2008, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Jun Yu, 2009.
"Bias in the Estimation of the Mean Reversion Parameter in Continuous Time Models,"
16-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Yu, Jun, 2012. "Bias in the estimation of the mean reversion parameter in continuous time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 114-122.
- Jun Yu, 2009. "Bias in the Estimation of the Mean Reversion Parameter in Continuous Time Models," Microeconomics Working Papers 23045, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Jun Yu, 2007. "Bias in the Estimation of the Mean Reversion Parameter in Continuous Time Models," Working Papers CoFie-06-2008, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, revised Oct 2008.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Ai[dieresis]t-Sahalia, Yacine & Yu, Jialin, 2006. "Saddlepoint approximations for continuous-time Markov processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 507-551, October.
- Yong Bao & Aman Ullah, 2009. "On skewness and kurtosis of econometric estimators," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(2), pages 232-247, 07.
- Phillips, P. C. B., 1973. "The problem of identification in finite parameter continuous time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 351-362, December.
- Andrew W. Lo, 1986.
"Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lo, Andrew W., 1988. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Itô Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 231-247, August.
- Andrew W. Lo, . "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212 Elsevier.
- Ai[diaeresis]t-Sahalia, Yacine & Kimmel, Robert, 2007. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 413-452, February.
- Jun Yu & Peter Phillips, 2004.
"Jackknifing Bond Option Prices,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings
115, Econometric Society.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2005. "Comments on “A Selective Overview of Nonparametric Methods in Financial Econometrics” by Jianqing Fan," Working Papers 08-2005, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
- Chan, K C, et al, 1992.
" An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate CKLS(1992) estimation of interest rate models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00035, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
- Tang, Cheng Yong & Chen, Song Xi, 2009. "Parameter estimation and bias correction for diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 65-81, April.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January.
- Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 297-316, July.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 2013. "Unit Roots in Life -- A Graduate Student Story," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1913, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.