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Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing: A Mean-Variance Analysis

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  • Carl Chiarella

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Roberto Dieci

    (Universita' degli Studi di Bologna)

  • Tony He

    ()
    (University of Technology, Sydney)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to show, within the mean-variance framework, how the market belief can be constructed as the result of the aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs and how the market equilibrium prices of risky assets can thus be determined. The heterogeneous beliefs are defined in terms of not only the means but also variances and covariances. By constructing the mean and variance of the market belief, we analyze the impact of the heterogeneous beliefs on the market equilibrium asset pricing relation. In particular, we extend the standard CAPM under homogenous beliefs to the one under the heterogeneous beliefs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 108.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:108

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Keywords: Mean variance analysis; heterogeneous beliefs; aggregation; asset pricing;

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  1. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
  2. Laurent Calvet & Jean-Michel Grandmont & Isabelle Lemaire, 2001. "Aggregation of Heterogenous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Complete Financial Markets," Working Papers 2001-01, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  3. Jouini, Elyes & Napp, Clotilde, 2006. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset pricing in discrete time: An analysis of pessimism and doubt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1233-1260, July.
  4. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  5. Andrew B. Abel, . "Asset Prices Under Heterogenous Beliefs: Implications for the Equity Premium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 09-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  6. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
  7. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  8. Detemple Jerome & Murthy Shashidhar, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 294-320, April.
  9. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Working Papers 01-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  10. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Research Paper Series 56, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  11. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2001. "Speculative Behaviour and Complex Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 49, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  12. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2006. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Discrete Time : an Analysis of Pessimism and Doubt," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/341, Paris Dauphine University.
  13. Volker Böhm & Carl Chiarella, 2005. "Mean Variance Preferences, Expectations Formation, And The Dynamics Of Random Asset Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 61-97.
  14. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
  15. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  16. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1998. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good To Be True?," NBER Working Papers 6354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  18. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
  19. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  20. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2005. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Speculative Behaviour in a Dynamic Multi-Asset Framework," Research Paper Series 166, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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