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Asset Prices Under Heterogenous Beliefs: Implications for the Equity Premium

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  • Andrew B. Abel

Abstract

An individual investor’s demands for risky capital and riskless bonds depend on the investor’s subjective beliefs about the payoff to risky capital. This paper determines equilibrium asset prices and returns in a capital market in which investors have heterogeneous subjective expectations of the payoff to capital. Increased heterogeneity increases the riskless rate of return and reduces the stock price. Heterogeneity can also dramatically increase the equilibrium equity premium on stocks relative to bonds. Therefore, calculating the equity premium under the assumption of homogeneous beliefs could dramatically understate the equity premium that would prevail under heterogeneity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research in its series Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers with number 09-89.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:09-89

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Cited by:
  1. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2006. "Is there evidence of pessimism and doubt in subjective distributions? Implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1027-1043, June.
  2. Elyès Jouini & Selima Ben Mansour & Clotilde Napp & Jean-Michel Marin & Christian Robert, 2008. "Are Risk Averse Agents More Optimistic? A Bayesian Estimation Approach," Post-Print halshs-00176629, HAL.
  3. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2007. "Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/78, Paris Dauphine University.
  4. Costas Xiouros, 2006. "Asset price volatilities and trading volumes in heterogeneous agent economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 466, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Prediction Market Accuracy," TSE Working Papers 13-394, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  6. Basak, Suleyman, 2004. "Asset Prices with Heterogenous Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Tony He, 2006. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing: A Mean-Variance Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 108, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2009. "Unbiased Disagreement and the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/3495, Paris Dauphine University.
  9. Robert, Christian P. & Napp, Clotilde & Marin, Jean-Michel & Jouini, Elyès & Ben Mansour, Selima, 2008. "Are Risk-Averse Agents more Optimistic? A Bayesian Estimation Approach," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/2324, Paris Dauphine University.
  10. Clotilde Napp & Elyes Jouini, 2004. "Hétérogénéité des croyances, prix du risque et volatilité des marchés," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 125-137.
  11. Jouini, Elyes & Napp, Clotilde, 2006. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset pricing in discrete time: An analysis of pessimism and doubt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1233-1260, July.
  12. N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1990. "The Consumption of Stockholders and Non-Stockholders," NBER Working Papers 3402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2006. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing Theory: A Mean-Variance Analysis," Research Paper Series 186, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  14. Jennifer Juergens & Evan Anderson & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 477, Econometric Society.
  15. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Bounded Rationality and Market Dysfunctionality," Research Paper Series 233, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

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