Asset Prices Under Heterogenous Beliefs: Implications for the Equity Premium

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Asset Prices Under Heterogenous Beliefs: Implications for the Equity Premium

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Andrew B. Abel

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Andrew Abel

Abstract

An individual investor’s demands for risky capital and riskless bonds depend on the investor’s subjective beliefs about the payoff to risky capital. This paper determines equilibrium asset prices and returns in a capital market in which investors have heterogeneous subjective expectations of the payoff to capital. Increased heterogeneity increases the riskless rate of return and reduces the stock price. Heterogeneity can also dramatically increase the equilibrium equity premium on stocks relative to bonds. Therefore, calculating the equity premium under the assumption of homogeneous beliefs could dramatically understate the equity premium that would prevail under heterogeneity.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research in its series Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers with number 9-89.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:9-89

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Paper
- Andrew B. Abel, . "Asset Prices Under Heterogenous Beliefs: Implications for the Equity Premium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 09-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.

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N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1991. "The Consumption of Stockholders and Non-Stockholders," NBER Working Papers 3402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Mankiw, N.G. & Zeldes, S.P., 1990. "The Consumption Of Stockholders And Non-Stockholders," Weiss Center Working Papers 23-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2006. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing Theory: A Mean-Variance Analysis," Research Paper Series 186, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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Other versions:
- Jouini, Elyes & Napp, Clotilde, 2006. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset pricing in discrete time: An analysis of pessimism and doubt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1233-1260, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2007. "Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Post-Print halshs-00176594_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2003. "Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Finance 0312001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
- Clotilde Napp & Elyès Jouini, 2007. "Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Post-Print halshs-00152348_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
- Elyes Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2007. "Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 74(4), pages 1149-1174, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Costas Xiouros, 2006. "Asset price volatilities and trading volumes in heterogeneous agent economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 466, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]

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