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Testing For Unit Roots Using Economics

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  • ROMULO CHUMACERO

Abstract

This paper considers the economic implications of having unit roots in stochastic processes of variables like consumption or GDP. Using a variety of models, we develop indirect tests for unit roots based on sharp distinctions that should arise when the scale variable is either difference stationary or trend stationary. These tests are seen to avoid the undesirable size-power trade-off that characterizes traditional UR tests. They are applied to a wide variety of countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 2.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:2

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Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/conference/SCE2001/SCE2001.html
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Keywords: Unit Root; Trend; General Equilibrium; Interest Rates.;

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  1. Nelson, C-R & Murray, C-J, 1997. "The Uncertain Trend in U.S. GDP," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 97-05, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 18, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. John Y. Campbell, 1987. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," NBER Working Papers 1509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
  7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  8. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  9. Paul Lau, Sau-Him, 1999. "I(0) In, integration and cointegration out:: Time series properties of endogenous growth models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-24, November.
  10. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  11. Rothman, Philip, 1997. "More Uncertainty about the Unit Root in U.S. Real GNP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 771-780, October.
  12. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
  13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
  14. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  15. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Solving asset pricing models with Gaussian shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 329-340, March.
  16. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997. "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August.
  17. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
  18. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Solange Berstein & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2003. "Is There Lending Rate Stickiness in the Chilean Banking Industry?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 218, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Alberto Humala, 2005. "Interest rate pass-through and financial crises: do switching regimes matter? the case of Argentina," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94.
  3. Rómulo Chumacero Escudero, 2000. "Se busca una raíz unitaria: evidencia para Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 27(1 Year 20), pages 55-68, June.
  4. Raimundo Soto M. & Matías Tapia G., 2000. "Seasonal Cointegration in Money Demand," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 3(3), pages 57-71, December.

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