Testing For Unit Roots Using Economics

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Testing For Unit Roots Using Economics

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ROMULO CHUMACERO

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Romulo Chumacero

Abstract

This paper considers the economic implications of having unit roots in stochastic processes of variables like consumption or GDP. Using a variety of models, we develop indirect tests for unit roots based on sharp distinctions that should arise when the scale variable is either difference stationary or trend stationary. These tests are seen to avoid the undesirable size-power trade-off that characterizes traditional UR tests. They are applied to a wide variety of countries.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 2.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:2

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Paper
- Rómulo Chumacero, 2001. "Testing for unit roots using economics," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 102, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2001-05-02 (All new papers)
NEP-ECM-2001-05-02 (Econometrics)
NEP-ETS-2001-05-02 (Econometric Time Series)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
Other versions:
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Sep 1987. [Downloadable!]
Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 18, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit Roots in Real GNP: Do We Know, and Do We Care?," NBER Working Papers 3130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
Other versions:
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
John Y. Campbell, 1987. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," NBER Working Papers 1509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Campbell, John Y, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 1997. "Using stochastic growth models to understand unit roots and breaking trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1645-1667, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Solving asset pricing models with Gaussian shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 329-340, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Philip Rothman, . "More Uncertainty About the Unit Root in U.S. Real GNP," Working Papers 9616, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
Other versions:
- Rothman, Philip, 1997. "More Uncertainty about the Unit Root in U.S. Real GNP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 771-780, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Alberto Humala, 2005. "Interest rate pass-through and financial crises: do switching regimes matter? the case of Argentina," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Raimundo Soto & Matías Tapia, 2001. "Seasonal cointegration and the stability of the demand for money," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 103, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
Rómulo A. Chumacero & J. Rodrigo Fuentes, 2002. "On the determinants of the Chilean Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 134, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
Rómulo Chumacero, 2000. "Se Busca una Raíz Unitaria: Evidencia para Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 86, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Rómulo Chumacero Escudero, 2000. "Se busca una raíz unitaria: evidencia para Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 27(1 Year 20), pages 55-68, June. [Downloadable!]
Rómulo Chumacero, 2003. "A Toolkit for Analyzing Alternative Policies in The Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 241, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]

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