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Predicting Online Purchasing Behavior

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Author Info
W.R BUCKINX
D. VAN DEN POEL ()

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Abstract

This empirical study investigates the contribution of different types of predictors to the purchasing behaviour at an online store. We use logit modelling to predict whether or not a purchase is made during the next visit to the website using both forward and backward variable-selection techniques, as well as Furnival and Wilson’s global score search algorithm to find the best subset of predictors. We contribute to the literature by using variables from four different categories in predicting online-purchasing behaviour: (1) general clickstream behaviour at the level of the visit, (2) more detailed clickstream information, (3) customer demographics, and (4) historical purchase behaviour. The results show that predictors from all four categories are retained in the final (best subset) solution indicating that clickstream behaviour is important when determining the tendency to buy. We clearly indicate the contribution in predictive power of variables that were never used before in online purchasing studies. Detailed clickstream variables are the most important ones in classifying customers according to their online purchase behaviour. In doing so, we are able to highlight the advantage of e-commerce retailers of being able to capture an elaborate list of customer information.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 03/195.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:03/195

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Related research
Keywords: Marketing; Forecasting; E-commerce; Classification; Clickstream data; Customer Relationship Management;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. W. Buckinx & D. Van Den Poel, 2003. "Customer Base Analysis: Partial Defection of Behaviorally-Loyal Clients in a Non-Contractual FMCG Retail Setting," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/178, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
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  2. B. Baesens & G. Verstraeten & D. Van Den Poel & M. Egmont-Petersen & P. Van Kenhove & J. Vanthienen, 2002. "Bayesian Network Classifiers for Identifying the Slope of the Customer - Lifecycle of Long-Life Customers," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 02/154, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Baesens, Bart & Viaene, Stijn & Van den Poel, Dirk & Vanthienen, Jan & Dedene, Guido, 2002. "Bayesian neural network learning for repeat purchase modelling in direct marketing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 191-211, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Van den Poel, Dirk & Leunis, Joseph, 1999. "Consumer Acceptance of the Internet as a Channel of Distribution," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 249-256, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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