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Bayesian neural network learning for repeat purchase modelling in direct marketing

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Author Info

  • Baesens, Bart
  • Viaene, Stijn
  • Van den Poel, Dirk
  • Vanthienen, Jan
  • Dedene, Guido

Abstract

We focus on purchase incidence modelling for a European direct mail company. Response models based on statistical and neural network techniques are contrasted. The evidence framework of MacKay is used as an example implementation of Bayesian neural network learning, a method that is fairly robust with respect to problems typically encountered when implementing neural networks. The automatic relevance determination (ARD) method, an integrated feature of this framework, allows us to assess the relative importance of the inputs. The basic response models use operationalisations of the traditionally discussed Recency, Frequency and Monetary (RFM) predictor categories. In a second experiment, the RFM response framework is enriched by the inclusion of other (non-RFM) customer profiling predictors. We contribute to the literature by providing experimental evidence that: (1) Bayesian neural networks offer a viable alternative for purchase incidence modelling; (2) a combined use of all three RFM predictor categories is advocated by the ARD method; (3) the inclusion of non-RFM variables allows to significantly augment the predictive power of the constructed RFM classifiers; (4) this rise is mainly attributed to the inclusion of customer/mailing company interaction variables and a variable measuring whether a customer uses the credit facilities of the direct mailing company. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 138 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 191-211

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:138:y:2002:i:1:p:191-211

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bose, Indranil & Chen, Xi, 2009. "Quantitative models for direct marketing: A review from systems perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 1-16, May.
  2. D. Van Den Poel & B. Larivière, 2003. "Customer Attrition Analysis For Financial Services Using Proportional Hazard Models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/164, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  3. Coussement, Kristof & Buckinx, Wouter, 2011. "A probability-mapping algorithm for calibrating the posterior probabilities: A direct marketing application," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 732-738, November.
  4. Nadarajah, Saralees & Kotz, Samuel, 2009. "Models for purchase frequency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(3), pages 1014-1026, February.
  5. J. Burez & D. Van Den Poel, 2008. "Handling class imbalance in customer churn prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/517, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  6. B. Baesens & T. Van Gestel & M. Stepanova & D. Van Den Poel, 2004. "Neural Network Survival Analysis for Personal Loan Data," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/281, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  7. G. Verstraeten & D. Van Den Poel, 2004. "The Impact of Sample Bias on Consumer Credit Scoring Performance and Profitability," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/232, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  8. D. F. Benoit & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improving Customer Retention In Financial Services Using Kinship Network Information," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/786, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  9. W. Buckinx & E. Moons & D. Van Den Poel & G. Wets, 2003. "Customer-Adapted Coupon Targeting Using Feature Selection," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/201, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  10. W.R Buckinx & D. Van Den Poel, 2003. "Predicting Online Purchasing Behavior," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/195, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  11. Baumgartner, Bernhard & Hruschka, Harald, 2005. "Allocation of catalogs to collective customers based on semiparametric response models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(3), pages 839-849, May.
  12. B. Larivière & D. Van Den Poel, 2004. "Predicting Customer Retention and Profitability by Using Random Forests and Regression Forests Techniques," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/282, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  13. David Olson & Qing Cao & Ching Gu & Donhee Lee, 2009. "Comparison of customer response models," Service Business, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 117-130, June.
  14. Buckinx, Wouter & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2005. "Customer base analysis: partial defection of behaviourally loyal clients in a non-contractual FMCG retail setting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 252-268, July.
  15. K. Coussement & D. Van Den Poel, 2008. "Improving Customer Attrition Prediction by Integrating Emotions from Client/Company Interaction Emails and Evaluating Multiple Classifiers," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/527, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  16. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "The Relevant Length of Customer Event History for Churn Prediction: How long is long enough?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/804, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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