Economic Determinants of Third-Party Intervention in Civil Conflict
AbstractOur paper explores the economic conditions that lead third parties to intervene in ongoing internal wars. We develop a formal model that ties together some of the main forces driving the decision to interfere in a civil war, including the economic benefits accruing from the intervention and the potential costs associated with such choice. We predict that third party interventions are most likely in civil conflicts where the country at war harbors a profitable industry as a consequence of its high levels of peace-time production and state strength, while the opposition forces’ strength reduces the likelihood of intervention. We also present novel empirical results on the role of valuable goods, i.e. oil, in prompting third party military intervention in contexts of high state stability, by using a dataset on intrastate conflicts on the period 1960-1999.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Network of European Peace Scientists in its series NEPS Working Papers with number 4/2011.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Intrastate Conflict; Third party intervention;
Other versions of this item:
- Vincenzo Bove & Petros G. Sekeris, 2011. "Economic Determinants of Third Party Intervention in Civil Conflict," Working Papers 1115, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-02-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2012-02-08 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-HIS-2012-02-08 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
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