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Mineral resources and conflicts in DRC: a case of ecological fallacy?

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  • Jean-François Maystadt
  • Giacomo De Luca
  • Petros G. Sekeris
  • John Ulimwengu

Abstract

We estimate the impact of geo-located mining concessions on the number of conflict events recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1997 and 2007. Instrumenting the variable of interest with historical concessions interacted with changes in international prices of minerals, we unveil an ecological fallacy: whereas concessions have no effect on the number of conflicts at the territory level (lowest administrative unit), they do foster violence at the district level (higher administrative unit). We develop and validate empirically a theoretical model where the incentives of armed groups to exploit and protect mineral resources explain our empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Maystadt & Giacomo De Luca & Petros G. Sekeris & John Ulimwengu, 2014. "Mineral resources and conflicts in DRC: a case of ecological fallacy?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 721-749.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:66:y:2014:i:3:p:721-749.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • N57 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Africa; Oceania

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