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Raising The Cost Of Rebellion: The Role Of Third-Party Intervention In Intrastate Conflict

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Author Info

  • Yang-Ming Chang
  • Shane Sanders

Abstract

This paper presents a simple model to characterize explicitly the role that an intervening third party plays in raising the cost of rebellion in an intrastate conflict. Extending the Gershenson-Grossman (2000) framework of conflict in a two-stage game to the case involving outside intervention in a three-stage game as in Chang et al. (2007b), we examine the conditions under which an outside party optimally intervenes such that (i) the strength of the rebel group is diminished or (ii) the rebellion is deterred altogether. We also find conditions in which a third party optimally intervenes but at a level insufficient to deter rebellion. Such behavior, which improves the incumbent government's potential to succeed in conflict, is overlooked in some conflict studies evaluating the effectiveness of intervention. One policy implication of the model is that an increase in the strength of inter-governmental trade partnerships increases the likelihood that third-party intervention deters rebellion.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802221742
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Defence and Peace Economics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 149-169

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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:149-169

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Related research

Keywords: Intrastate conflict; Third-party intervention; War; Peace;

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Cited by:
  1. Gupta, Rupayan, 2008. "The Effect of Opportunity Cost and Pacifism on Protests in Occupied Regions," MPRA Paper 24015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2010.
  2. Zuleta, Hernando & Villaveces, Marta Juanita & Andonova, Veneta, 2013. "Conflict and negotiation in Colombia: Are pre-donations useful?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 105-117.
  3. Bove, Vincenzo & Sekeris, Petros, 2011. "Economic Determinants of Third-Party Intervention in Civil Conflict," NEPS Working Papers 4/2011, Network of European Peace Scientists.

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