Socioeconomic Impacts of Cross-Border Transport Infrastructure Development in South Asia
AbstractAlthough the overall economic performance of economies in South Asia in recent years has been impressive, there is concern that an aging and increasingly inadequate infrastructure may limit the potential for further growth and economic development. A critical infrastructure component is the transportation network, and there are currently several transportation infrastructure projects in the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC) region, connecting Nepal, eastern India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. This paper uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) methods to address how these infrastructure developments might affect the broader economy in SASEC, and in particular impact on income distribution and poverty. The paper describes a new CGE model for South Asia, covering India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan, which incorporates modifications to household structure in order to capture the implications of reform for changes in intra-household income. The scenarios that are considered reflect proposed investments in land transport infrastructure in the SASEC region. These should result in reductions in the land transport component of international transport margins, which vary bilaterally by commodity. We found that all SASEC economies would benefit from the reductions in terms of aggregate welfare, with the largest gains accruing to India in absolute terms, but the largest relative gains to Nepal, followed by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka when the margin reduction is prorated to intra-South Asian trade rather than just SASEC. In terms of household level distribution, the picture was mixed, with clearly pro-poor outcomes in some countries, such as Nepal, but more ambiguous impacts in others. In terms of potential adjustment costs, examination of the extent of predicted structural changes suggests that these would be minor, although somewhat more significant for the smaller economies in the region.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 211.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 14 Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Kasumigaseki Building 8F, 3-2-5, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku,, Tokyo 100-6008, Japan
Fax: (81-3) 3593-5571
Web page: http://www.adbi.org/
More information through EDIRC
cge method; infrastructure development; sasec; income distribution poverty reduction;
Other versions of this item:
- John Gilbert & Nilanjan Banik, 2010. "Socioeconomic Impacts of Cross- Border Transport Infrastructure Development in South Asia," Development Economics Working Papers 21803, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- John Gilbert & Nilanjan Banik, 2010. "Socioeconomic Impacts of Cross-Border Transport Infrastructure Development in South Asia," Working Papers id:3105, eSocialSciences.
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2010-04-24 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-PPM-2010-04-24 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-URE-2010-04-24 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hertel, Thomas W. & Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2004.
"Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3444, The World Bank.
- Thomas Hertel & Jeffrey Reimer, 2005. "Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 377-405.
- Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
- John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, 05.
- Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002.
"Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), December.
- Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 1999. "Trade liberalization and regional integration: the search for large numbers," TMD discussion papers 34, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Fontana, Marzia & Wobst, Peter, 2001. "A gendered 1993-94 Social Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh," TMD discussion papers 74, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003.
"How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?,"
GTAP Working Papers
1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
- Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006.
"Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda,"
World Bank Publications,
The World Bank, number 6889, October.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-17, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2005. "Agricultural trade reform and the Doha development agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3607, The World Bank.
- Yue Ma, 2008. "Incomplete financial market and the sequence of international trade liberalization," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 108-117.
- Ahmed, Vaqar & O' Donoghue, Cathal, 2008. "Welfare impact of external balance in pakistan: CGE-microsimulation analysis," MPRA Paper 9267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Basanta K. Pradhan & Sahoo Amarendra, 2006. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Household Welfare and Poverty in India," Working Papers MPIA 2006-01, PEP-MPIA.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2007:i:17:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
- Khan, haider, 2008. "Analyzing Poverty Impact of Trade Liberalization Policies in CGE Models: Theory and Some Policy Experiments in Agricultural and Non-agricultural Sectors in South Asia," MPRA Paper 7609, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2008.
- John Gilbert, 2009.
"Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India,"
200903, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance, revised 28 Jun 2009.
- John Gilbert, 2009. "Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India," Working Papers 2009-03, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 28 Jun 2009.
- Annabi, Nabil & Khondker, Bazlul & Raihan, Selim & Cockburn, John & Decaluwe, Bernard, 2006. "Implications of WTO agreements and unilateral trade policy reforms for poverty in Bangladesh : short versus long-run impacts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3976, The World Bank.
- Sanjaya Acharya, 2007. "Flow Structure in Nepal and the Benefit to the Poor," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(17), pages 1-14.
- Manoj K. Panda & A. Ganesh Kumar, 2008. "Trade liberalization, poverty and food security in India abstract: This paper attempts to assess the impact of trade," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-013, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
- John Cockburn, 2002.
"Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis,"
CSAE Working Paper Series
2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2002-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- John Cockburn, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Development and Comp Systems 0409012, EconWPA.
- Thomas W. Hertel & L. Alan Winters, 2005. "Estimating the Poverty Impacts of a Prospective Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(8), pages 1057-1071, 08.
- L. Alan Winters, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9), pages 1339-1367, 09.
- Acharya, Sanjaya & Cohen, Solomon, 2008. "Trade liberalisation and household welfare in Nepal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1057-1060.
- Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, 02.
- Sandra Polaski et al, 2008. "Policy dilemmas in India: The Impact of changes in agricultural prices on rural and urban poverty," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-012, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
- Peter J. Lloyd & Donald Maclaren, 2004. "Gains and Losses from Regional Trading Agreements: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 445-467, December.
- Utsav Kumar & Prachi Mishra, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Wage Inequality: Evidence from India," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 291-311, 05.
- Sandra Polaski & Manoj Panda & A. Ganesh-Kumar & Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson, 2008. "Policy Dilemmas in India - The Impact of Changes in Agricultural Prices on Rural and Urban Poverty," Trade Working Papers 22409, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Vaqar, Ahmed & Ghulam, Samad, 2011. "Trade facilitation for economic corridors in South Asia: the perspective of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 31368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- DREZE, Jacques & DURRE, Alain, 2013. "Fiscal integration and growth stimulation in Europe," CORE Discussion Papers 2013013, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Robert Hugh Davis).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.