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The economic impact of new regional trading developments in the ESCAP region

Author

Listed:
  • John Gilbert

    (Professor, Department of Economics and Finance, Jon M. Huntsman School of Business, Utah State University, 3565 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-3565, United States of America)

Abstract

In this paper the results of a number of numerical simulations of possible trade liberalization scenarios in the ESCAP region are presented. The scenarios considered include: expansion of existing trade blocs to encompass new members; consolidation and deepening of existing trade agreements; and a region-wide free trade area. The simulations were conducted using the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and were based on a projection of the database to 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gilbert, 2013. "The economic impact of new regional trading developments in the ESCAP region," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 20(1), pages 1-32, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:unt:jnapdj:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:1-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), pages 1-20.
    5. John Gilbert, 2011. "Trade reforms under Doha and income distribution in South Asia," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia, chapter 12, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    6. Jayant Menon, 2009. "Dealing with the Proliferation of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(10), pages 1381-1407, October.
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    10. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, February.
    11. Peter J. Lloyd & Donald Maclaren, 2004. "Gains and Losses from Regional Trading Agreements: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 445-467, December.
    12. Romain Duval & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2009. "Long-Run GDP Growth Framework and Scenarios for the World Economy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 663, OECD Publishing.
    13. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    14. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, May.
    15. Mikic, Mia, 2007. "Preferential trade agreements and agricultural trade liberalization in Asia and the Pacific," MPRA Paper 2947, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    17. Mia Mikic, 2007. "Trends in preferential trade liberalization in Asia and the Pacific," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Studies in Trade and Investment - AGRICULTURAL TRADE - PLANTING THE SEEDS OF REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION IN ASIA, volume 60, pages 1-32, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    18. Fontagné, Lionel & Guillin, Amélie & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2010. "Estimations of Tariff Equivalents for the Services Sectors," Conference papers 331941, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
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    20. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rajan Sudesh Ratna & Sachin Kumar Sharma, 2016. "Mega Trading Blocks," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(2), pages 181-199, September.
    2. Badri Narayanan & Sachin Kumar Sharma, 2016. "An Analysis of Tariff Reductions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): Implications for the Indian Economy," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, February.
    3. Mohammad Masudur Rahman & Laila Arjuman Ara, 2015. "TPP, TTIP and RCEP," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 16(1), pages 27-45, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable general equilibrium; trade reform; Asia-Pacific region;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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