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Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India

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Abstract

We use computable general equilibrium methods to examine the impact that agricultural trade reform under the Doha agreement would have on the Indian economy, in particular on household level welfare. The GTAP model is used to simulate the effect of the latest proposed modalities on the global economy, and those results are then used in a model of India with nine household groups identified by their source of income and consumption pattern. We find that both Doha and comprehensive agricultural trade reform would raise Indian aggregate welfare, with the latter having a much greater impact than the former, but may have a negative impact on the welfare of some rural groups. Overall poverty falls under comprehensive reform and is virtually unchanged under the Doha proposals. Empirical estimates of the distributions of trade elasticities are used to test the robustness of the results.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 200903.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jun 2009
Date of revision: 28 Jun 2009
Handle: RePEc:uth:wpaper:200903

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Keywords: Agricultural trade; Doha; India; Poverty;

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References

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  1. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia-Pacific: A Survey and Some New Results," Working Papers 200801, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
  2. Hertel, Thomas W. & Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2004. "Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3444, The World Bank.
  3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 12885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Basanta K. Pradhan & Sahoo Amarendra, 2006. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Household Welfare and Poverty in India," Working Papers MPIA 2006-01, PEP-MPIA.
  5. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889, October.
  6. Peter J. Lloyd & Donald Maclaren, 2004. "Gains and Losses from Regional Trading Agreements: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 445-467, December.
  7. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
  8. Thijs Ten Raa & Amarendra Sahoo, 2007. "Competitive Pressure on the Indian Households: A General Equilibrium Approach," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 57-71.
  9. Philip D. Adams & Mark Horridge & Brian Parmenter & Xiao-Guang Zhang, 1998. "Long-run Effects on China of APEC Trade Liberalisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-130, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  10. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), December.
  11. Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas, 2003. "Labor market distortions and China's WTO accession package:: an applied general equilibrium assessment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 774-794, December.
  13. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, 02.
  14. William R. Cline, 2004. "Trade Policy and Global Poverty," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 379.
  15. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, 05.
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Cited by:
  1. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia-Pacific: A Survey and Some New Results," Working Papers 2008-01, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2008.
  2. Gilbert, John & Banik, Nilanjan, 2010. "Socioeconomic Impacts of Cross-Border Transport Infrastructure Development in South Asia," ADBI Working Papers 211, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  3. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural trade reform and poverty in the Asia-Pacific region: a survey and some new results," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 15(1), pages 1-34, June.
  4. John Gilbert, 2008. "Trade Policy, Poverty, and Income Distribution in CGE Models: An Application to SAFTA," Working Papers 200802, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance.

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