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Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India

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Abstract

We use computable general equilibrium methods to examine the impact that agricultural trade reform under the Doha agreement would have on the Indian economy, in particular on household level welfare. The GTAP model is used to simulate the effect of the latest proposed modalities on the global economy, and those results are then used in a model of India with nine household groups identified by their source of income and consumption pattern. We find that both Doha and comprehensive agricultural trade reform would raise Indian aggregate welfare, with the latter having a much greater impact than the former, but may have a negative impact on the welfare of some rural groups. Overall poverty falls under comprehensive reform and is virtually unchanged under the Doha proposals. Empirical estimates of the distributions of trade elasticities are used to test the robustness of the results.

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  • John Gilbert, 2009. "Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India," Working Papers 200903, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance, revised 28 Jun 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:uth:wpaper:200903
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    1. John Gilbert & Nilanjan Banik, 2012. "Socio-economic impacts of regional transport infrastructure in South Asia," Chapters, in: Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Masahiro Kawai & Rajat M. Nag (ed.), Infrastructure for Asian Connectivity, chapter 5, pages 139-163, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. John Gilbert, 2008. "Trade Policy, Poverty, and Income Distribution in CGE Models: An Application to SAFTA," Working Papers 2008-02, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2008.
    3. Gilbert, John & Banik, Nilanjan, 2010. "Socioeconomic Impacts of Cross-Border Transport Infrastructure Development in South Asia," ADBI Working Papers 211, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia-Pacific: A Survey and Some New Results," Working Papers 200801, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    5. Mohammad Alam & Jeroen Buysse & Ismat Begum & Stephan Nolte & Eric Wailes & Guido Van Huylenbroeck, 2015. "Impact of trade liberalization and world price changes in Bangladesh: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, December.
    6. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural trade reform and poverty in the Asia-Pacific region: a survey and some new results," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 15(1), pages 1-34, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural trade; Doha; India; Poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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