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Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India

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Author Info
John Gilbert () (Department of Economics and Finance, Utah State University)

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Abstract

We use computable general equilibrium methods to examine the impact that agricultural trade reform under the Doha agreement would have on the Indian economy, in particular on household level welfare. The GTAP model is used to simulate the effect of the latest proposed modalities on the global economy, and those results are then used in a model of India with nine household groups identified by their source of income and consumption pattern. We find that both Doha and comprehensive agricultural trade reform would raise Indian aggregate welfare, with the latter having a much greater impact than the former, but may have a negative impact on the welfare of some rural groups. Overall poverty falls under comprehensive reform and is virtually unchanged under the Doha proposals. Empirical estimates of the distributions of trade elasticities are used to test the robustness of the results.

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File URL: ftp://repec.bus.usu.edu/RePEc/usu/pdf/eri2009-03.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Utah State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2009-03.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jun 2009
Date of revision: 28 Jun 2009
Handle: RePEc:usu:wpaper:2009-03

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Web page: http://apec.usu.edu/
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Related research
Keywords: Agricultural trade; Doha; India; Poverty;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Thomas Hertel & Jeffrey Reimer, 2005. "Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 377-405, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Basanta K. Pradhan & Sahoo Amarendra, 2006. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Household Welfare and Poverty in India," Cahiers de recherche MPIA 2006-01, PEP-MPIA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thijs Ten Raa & Amarendra Sahoo, 2007. "Competitive Pressure on the Indian Households: A General Equilibrium Approach," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 57-71. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas, 2003. "Labor market distortions and China's WTO accession package:: an applied general equilibrium assessment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 774-794, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Gilbert, 2008. "Trade Policy, Poverty, and Income Distribution in CGE Models: An Application to SAFTA," Working Papers 200802, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia-Pacific: A Survey and Some New Results," Working Papers 200801, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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