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Long-run Effects on China of APEC Trade Liberalisation

Author

Listed:
  • Philip D. Adams
  • Mark Horridge
  • Brian Parmenter
  • Xiao-Guang Zhang

Abstract

Plans for APEC trade liberalisation include the elimination of all tariffs between member states. In this paper we use two computable general equilibrium models to examine the effects of these plans, focussing on China. Our modelling shows that liberalisation increases China's capital stock and real GDP. The implication for Chinese industries depend on the extent to which liberalisation exposes them to additional import competition. Industries strongly stimulated include Textiles and Communications Equipment. Transport Equipment is the most adversely affected. Chinese regional results follow from the industrial compositions of the regions, with Zhejiang the most favourably affected and Jilin the least.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip D. Adams & Mark Horridge & Brian Parmenter & Xiao-Guang Zhang, 1998. "Long-run Effects on China of APEC Trade Liberalisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-130, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-130
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adams, Philip D. & Dixon, Peter B. & McDonald, Daina & Meagher, G. A. & Parmenter, Brian R., 1994. "Forecasts for the Australian economy using the MONASH model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 557-571, December.
    2. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Zhi, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round: The implications of an Asian free trade area," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 35-90.
    3. Philip D. Adams & Karen M. Huff & Robert McDougall & K.R. Pearson & Alan A. Powell, 1996. "Medium- and Long-run Consequences for Australia of an APEC Free Trade Area: CGE Analyses using the GTAP and MONASH Models," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-111, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    4. Mark Horridge, 2000. "ORANI-G: A General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-93, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    5. Xu, Dianqing, 1996. "The chasm in the transition: A CGE analysis of Chinese economic reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 117-139, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Xianhua Wu & Yingying Wang & Lingjuan Yang & Shunfeng Song & Guo Wei & Ji Guo, 2016. "Impact of political dispute on international trade based on an international trade Inoperability Input-Output Model: A case study of the 2012 Diaoyu Islands Dispute," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 47-70, February.
    2. John Gilbert, 2009. "Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India," Working Papers 2009-03, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 28 Jun 2009.
    3. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-286, May.
    4. Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Abdelmalki, Lahsen, 2007. "The Free Trade Agreement Between the United States and Morocco: The Importance of a Gradual and Assymetric Agreement," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 852-887.
    5. Karingi, Stephen & Lang, Rémi & Oulmane, Nassim & Perez, Romain & Sadni, Mustapha & Hammouda, Hakim Ben, 2005. "Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements," Conference papers 331389, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Hong Zhang, 2004. "The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 119-137.
    7. John Gilbert, 2008. "BIMSTEC-Japan Trade Cooperation and Poverty in Asia," Working Papers 2008-03, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2008.
    8. Mai, Yinhua & Horridge, Mark & Perkins, Frances, 2003. "Estimating the Effects of China’s Accession to the World Trade Organisation," Conference papers 331081, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Robert M. Stern, 2000. "Quantifying Barriers to Trade in Services," Working Papers 470, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    10. Karingi, Stephen & Oulmane, Nassim & Lang, Rémi & Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Perez, Romain, 2005. "Assessment of the impact of the Economic Partnership Agreement between the ECOWAS countries and the European Union," MPRA Paper 13292, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium Models; Economic Integration;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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