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Long-run Effects on China of APEC Trade Liberalisation

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Author Info

  • Philip D. Adams
  • Mark Horridge
  • Brian Parmenter
  • Xiao-Guang Zhang

Abstract

Plans for APEC trade liberalisation include the elimination of all tariffs between member states. In this paper we use two computable general equilibrium models to examine the effects of these plans, focussing on China. Our modelling shows that liberalisation increases China's capital stock and real GDP. The implication for Chinese industries depend on the extent to which liberalisation exposes them to additional import competition. Industries strongly stimulated include Textiles and Communications Equipment. Transport Equipment is the most adversely affected. Chinese regional results follow from the industrial compositions of the regions, with Zhejiang the most favourably affected and Jilin the least.

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File URL: http://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-130.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-130.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Pacific Economic Review, Vol 5(1) 2000, pp. 15-47.
Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-130

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Related research

Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models; Economic Integration;

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References

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  1. Adams, Philip D. & Dixon, Peter B. & McDonald, Daina & Meagher, G. A. & Parmenter, Brian R., 1994. "Forecasts for the Australian economy using the MONASH model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 557-571, December.
  2. Philip D. Adams & Karen M. Huff & Robert McDougall & K.R. Pearson & Alan A. Powell, 1996. "Medium- and Long-run Consequences for Australia of an APEC Free Trade Area: CGE Analyses using the GTAP and MONASH Models," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-111, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  3. Xu, Dianqing, 1996. "The chasm in the transition: A CGE analysis of Chinese economic reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 117-139, April.
  4. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B.R., 1996. "Computable general equilibrium modelling for policy analysis and forecasting," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-85 Elsevier.
  5. Mark Horridge, 2000. "ORANI-G: A General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-93, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  6. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Zhi Wang, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round : the implications of an Asian free trade area," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1467, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Abdelmalki, Lahsen, 2007. "The Free Trade Agreement Between the United States and Morocco: The Importance of a Gradual and Assymetric Agreement," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 852-887.
  2. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 2000. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0001, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  3. John Gilbert, 2009. "Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India," Working Papers 200903, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance, revised 28 Jun 2009.
  4. Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Karingi, Stephen & Oulmane, Nassim & Perez, Romain & Lang, Rémi & Ben Hammouda, Hakim, 2005. "Economic and Welfare Impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements," MPRA Paper 12875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Karingi, Stephen & Oulmane, Nassim & Lang, Rémi & Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Perez, Romain, 2005. "Assessment of the impact of the Economic Partnership Agreement between the ECOWAS countries and the European Union," MPRA Paper 13292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Yin Hua Mai & Mark Horridge & Frances Perkins, 2003. "Estimating the effects of China's Accession to the World Trade Organisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-137, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  7. John Gilbert, 2008. "BIMSTEC-Japan Trade Cooperation and Poverty in Asia," Working Papers 2008-03, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2008.
  8. Robert M. Stern, 2000. "Quantifying Barriers to Trade in Services," Working Papers 470, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  9. Hong Zhang, 2004. "The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 119-137.

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