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Economic Uncertainty and Subjective Inflation Expectations

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  • Rossmann, Tobias

    (LMU Munich)

Abstract

Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals\' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This paper uses the panel dimension of household surveys to study individual-level heterogeneity in this measure of individual uncertainty. The results provide evidence for the existence of considerable heterogeneity in individuals\' response behavior and inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossmann, Tobias, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty and Subjective Inflation Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 160, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    • Handle: RePEc:rco:dpaper:160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty; inflation; expectations; mixture models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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