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What Moves Yields in Australia?

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Author Info
Frank Campbell (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Eleanor Lewis (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Abstract

In this paper, we measure how the fixed-interest market in Australia assesses and responds to new economic information. We use high-frequency data, precise announcement times and market-based forecasts to measure the reaction of bill and bond yields to news. The period covered is from January 1994 to September 1997. We find that announcements about US economic news have had a large impact on yields in Australia - especially bond yields. Of the domestic announcements, the market responds to: monetary policy announcements, the CPI, the labour force and AWOTE, as well as a range of other economic statistics. We also find that the fixed-interest market seems to distinguish between the information contained in different economic announcements and that traders systematically respond to the size and direction of any unanticipated component of these announcements. The results suggest that the market perceives that information on prices, employment and wages is more important in the Reserve Bank's decisions about monetary policy than are other indicators of economic activity. Taken in sum, the results also suggest some consistency of response to news in the fixed-interest market in Australia.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp9808.

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Date of creation: Jul 1998
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9808

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Related research
Keywords: news; economic announcements; financial markets; interest rates;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Research Paper 9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Edison, Hali J, 1997. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 87-100, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Ric Battellino & John Broadbent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "The Implementation of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9703, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tro Kortian & James O'Regan, 1996. "Australian Financial Market Volatility: An Exploration of Cross-country and Cross-market Linkages," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9609, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luci Ellis & Eleanor Lewis, 2001. "The Response of Financial Markets in Australia and New Zealand to News about the Asian Crisis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-03, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-10, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jonathan Coppel & Ellis Connolly, 2003. "What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us About Monetary Policy Transparency?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-05, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jeff M. Rogers & Pierre Siklos, 2001. "Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Two Small Open Economies: The Canadian and Australian Experience," Research Paper Series 57, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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