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Determinants of the relative price impact of unanticipated information in US macroeconomic releases

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  • Hess, Dieter E.
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the intraday response of T-bond futures prices to surprises in headline figures of U.S. macroeconomic reports. Analyzing the time series properties and the information content of the macroeconomic news flow, the paper seeks an answer to the question, what determines the relative price impact of releases. Several types of information regarding inflation and economic strength are distinguished and the explanatory power of the type of information is tested against the alternative hypothesis that the timeliness of a release determines its impact. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Frankfurt School of Finance and Management in its series Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series with number 46.

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    Date of creation: 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:46

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    Related research

    Keywords: Macroeconomic releases; information processing; T-bond futures;

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    References

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    1. Hali J. Edison, 1996. "The reaction of exchange rates and interest rates to news releases," International Finance Discussion Papers 570, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dwivedi, T. D. & Srivastava, V. K., 1978. "Optimality of least squares in the seemingly unrelated regression equation model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 391-395, April.
    4. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    5. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
    6. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 383-408, September.
    7. Michael Schroder & Robert Dornau, 2002. "Do forecasters use monetary models? an empirical analysis of exchange rate expectations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 535-543.
    8. Alan Krueger, 1996. "Do Markets Respond More To More Reliable Labor Market Data? A Test of Market Rationality," Working Papers 746, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    9. Franke, Gunter & Hess, Dieter, 2000. "Information diffusion in electronic and floor trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 455-478, December.
    10. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 31-50.
    11. Hess, Dieter E., 2000. "Surprises in scheduled releases: why do they move the bond market?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-61, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    12. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    13. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
    14. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," NBER Working Papers 1296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & R.W. Hafer, 1989. "Interest rates and economic announcements," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 34-46.
    16. Urich, Thomas & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "Market Response to the Weekly Money Supply Announcements in the 1970s," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1063-72, December.
    17. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Böing, Philipp & Müller, Elisabeth, 2012. "Technological Capabilities of Chinese Enterprises: Who is Going to Compete Abroad?," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62081, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Inklaar, Robert & Koetter, Michael & Noth, Felix, 2012. "Who's afraid of big bad banks? Bank competition, SME, and industry growth," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 197, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    3. Yu, Xiaofan, 2011. "A spatial interpretation of the persistency of China's provincial inequality," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 171, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    4. Libman, Alexander & Kozlov, Vladimir & Schultz, André, 2012. "Roving bandits in action: Outside option and governmental predation in autocracies," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 190, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    5. Harhoff, Dietmar & Mueller, Elisabeth & Van Reenen, John, 2012. "What are the channels for technology sourcing? Panel data evidence from German companies," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 187, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    6. Kostka, Genia & Moslener, Ulf & Andreas, Jan G., 2011. "Barriers to energy efficiency improvement: Empirical evidence from small-and-medium sized enterprises in China," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 178, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    7. Boeing, Philipp & Mueller, Elisabeth & Sandner, Philipp, 2012. "What makes Chinese firms productive? Learning from indigenous and foreign sources of knowledge," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 196, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

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