Do Markets Respond More to More Reliable Labor Market Data? A Test of Market Rationality
AbstractSince 1979, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has nearly quadrupled the size of the sample used to estimate monthly employment changes. Although first-reported employment estimates are still noisy, the magnitude of sampling variability has declined in proportion to the increase in the sample size. A model of rational Bayesian updating predicts that investors would assign more weight to the BLS employment survey as it became more precise. However, a regression analysis of changes in interest rates on the day the employment data are released finds no evidence that the bond market's reaction to employment news intensified in the late 1980s or 1990s; indeed, in the late 1990s and early 2000s the bond markets hardly reacted to unexpected employment news. For the time period as a whole, an unexpected increase of 200,000 jobs is associated with about a 6 basis point increase in the interest rate on 30-year Treasury bonds, and an 8 basis point increase in the interest rate on three-month bills, all else equal. Additionally, unexpected changes in the unemployment rate and revisions to past months' employment estimates have statistically insig-nificant effects on long-term interest rates. (JEL: G14, J23) Copyright (c) 2003 The European Economic Association.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Journal of the European Economic Association.
Volume (Year): 1 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (06)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/jeea
Other versions of this item:
- Alan B. Krueger, 1996. "Do Markets Respond More to More Reliable Labor Market Data? A Test of Market Rationality," NBER Working Papers 5769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
- J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Laakkonen, Helinä & Lanne, Markku, 2009. "The Relevance of Accuracy for the Impact of Macroeconomic News on Volatility," MPRA Paper 23718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Müller, Christoph, 2011.
"Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision,"
CFR Working Papers
08-04 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess & Christoph Müller, 2008. "Price Adjustment to News with Uncertain Precision," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-025, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter E. & Müller, Christoph, 2008. "Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/28, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess & Christoph Müller, 2008. "Price Adjustment to News with Uncertain Precision," FRU Working Papers 2008/01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
- Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter E. & Müller, Christoph, 2008. "Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision," CFR Working Papers 08-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997.
"What moves the bond market?,"
9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- John H. Boyd & Ravi Jagannathan & Jian Hu, 2001.
"The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News is Usually Good for Stocks,"
NBER Working Papers
8092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, 04.
- Chen, Qi & Francis, Jennifer & Jiang, Wei, 2005. "Investor learning about analyst predictive ability," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-24, February.
- Gilbert, Thomas, 2011. "Information aggregation around macroeconomic announcements: Revisions matter," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 114-131, July.
- Hess, Dieter E., 2003. "Determinants of the relative price impact of unanticipated information in US macroeconomic releases," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 46, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.