Bayesian Learning in Financial Markets – Testing for the Relevance of Information Precision in Price Discovery
AbstractAn important claim of Bayesian learning and a standard assumption in price discovery models is that the strength of the price impact of unanticipated information depends on the precision of the news. In this paper, we test for this assumption by analyzing intra-day price responses of CBOT T-bond futures to U.S. employment announcements. By employing additional detail information besides the widely used headline figures, we extract release-specific precision measures which allow to test for the claim of Bayesian updating. We find that the price impact of more precise information is significantly stronger. The results remain stable even after controlling for an asymmetric price response to 'good' and 'bad' news.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit in its series FRU Working Papers with number 2004/06.
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2004
Date of revision:
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Bayesian learning; information precision; macroeconomic announcements; asymmetric price response; financial markets; high-frequency data;
Other versions of this item:
- Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter, 2007. "Bayesian Learning in Financial Markets: Testing for the Relevance of Information Precision in Price Discovery," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(01), pages 189-208, March.
- Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter, 2004. "Bayesian learning in financial markets: Testing for the relevance of information precision in price discovery," CFR Working Papers 04-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess, 2004. "Bayesian Learning in Financial Markets: Testing for the Relevance of Information Precision in Price Discovery," Discussion Papers 04-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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CRSP working papers
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