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Macroeconomic announcements and implied volatilities in swaption markets

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  • Fabio Fornari

Abstract

Some of the sharpest movements in the major swap markets take place during days of US economic data releases. These yield movements induce spikes in volatilities during those days. Swaption prices adjust to reflect the spikes=the volatilities implied by these prices tend to fall once the volatility spike induced by an announcement has passed. For a given type of announcement, the decline in implied volatility is consistent with the average size of the spike in realised volatilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Fornari, 2004. "Macroeconomic announcements and implied volatilities in swaption markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:0409h
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frank Campbell & Eleanor Lewis, 1998. "What Moves Yields in Australia?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9808, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Craig H Furfine, 2001. "Do macro announcements still drive the US bond market?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    3. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Staff Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
    4. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Dec), pages 31-50.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Linda S. Goldberg & Deborah Leonard, 2003. "What moves sovereign bond markets? The effects of economic news on U.S. and German yields," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Sep).
    7. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1996. "The Creation and Resolution of Market Uncertainty: The Impact of Information Releases on Implied Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 513-539, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Fornari, 2005. "The rise and fall of US dollar interest rate volatility: evidence from swaptions," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    2. Stefania D'Amico & Tim Seida, 2020. "Unexpected Supply Effects of Quantitative Easing and Tightening," Working Paper Series WP-2020-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Claudio Loderer & Marc-André Mittermayer, 2006. "America and the Swiss Stock Exchange: An Intraday Analysis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(I), pages 79-114, March.
    4. Igor P. Rivera & Enzo D'Antonio di Vito & Andrés Fundia, 2011. "Valuación de Swaptions Bermuda basada en el modelo LIBOR adaptado a vectores frontera," Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México, vol. 5(1), pages 77-92.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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