IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0507022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Europe's Interest Rates led by FED Announcements?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Monticini

    (University of Exeter)

  • Giacomo Vaciago

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

Abstract

This paper investigates the degree and nature of economic and monetary policy relations among the United States, the Euro area, and Great Britain. Using daily interest rates, we estimate the impact of monetary policy announcements of a Central Bank on its domestic market and in what measure those announcements are able to influence other financial markets. In particular, we analyse the effect of the FED, ECB, and BoE monetary policy announcements on European markets. We find that Europe’s interest rates have a relevant response to FED announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Monticini & Giacomo Vaciago, 2005. "Are Europe's Interest Rates led by FED Announcements?," Macroeconomics 0507022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0507022
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0507/0507022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2003. "The reputation of a newborn central bank," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(224), pages 3-22.
    2. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September.
    3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    4. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    5. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2006. "Look who's talking: ECB communication during the first years of EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-228.
    6. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España.
    7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Joel T. Krueger & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of federal reserve policy," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(8), pages 865-879, December.
    9. William Poole & Robert H. Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 65-94.
    10. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December.
    11. Mr. Kevin Ross, 2002. "Market Predictability of ECB Policy Decisions: A Comparative Examination," IMF Working Papers 2002/233, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Kim, Suk-Joong & Kortian, Tro & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2000. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility -- Australian evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 381-405, December.
    13. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Staff Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
    14. Wendy Edelberg & David A. Marshall, 1996. "Monetary policy shocks and long-term interest rates," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 20(Mar), pages 2-17.
    15. Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. "Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
    16. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Predicting monetary policy using federal funds future prices," Working Paper Series 85, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's Monetary Policy Optimal?," WIFO Working Papers 173, WIFO.
    18. Jennifer Wang, 2005. "Federal Reserve : Inflation targeting : the debate over best-practice monetary policy is escalating : will it be rule-based or discretionary?," Econ Focus, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 9(Win), pages 2-4.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
    2. Maria Flavia Ambrosanio & Massimo Bordignon & Floriana Cerniglia, 2010. "Constitutional Reforms, Fiscal Decentralization and Regional Fiscal Flows in Italy," Chapters, in: Núria Bosch & Marta Espasa & Albert Solé Ollé (ed.), The Political Economy of Inter-Regional Fiscal Flows, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Stefano Colombo, 2008. "Discriminatory prices, endogenous locations and the Prisoner Dilemma problem," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0079, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    4. Luca Colombo & Herbert Dawid & Kordian Kabus, 2012. "When do thick venture capital markets foster innovation? An evolutionary analysis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 79-108, January.
    5. Baglioni, Angelo & Monticini, Andrea, 2010. "The intraday interest rate under a liquidity crisis: The case of August 2007," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 198-200, May.
    6. Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2005. "Are bond markets really overpriced: The case of the US," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 11, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    7. Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2011. "The Debate on the Crisis: Recent Reappraisals of the Concept of Functional Finance," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0105, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    8. Sandro Brusco & Luca Colombo & Umberto Galmarini, 2010. "Local Governments Tax Autonomy, Lobbying, and Welfare," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0097, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Ellis B. Heath & Seth J. Kopchak, 2015. "The Response of the Mexican Equity Market to US Monetary Surprises," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 87-111, August.
    10. Angelo Baglioni, 2006. "Entry into a network industry: consumers’ expectations and firms’ pricing policies," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief69, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    11. Çelik, Sadullah & Deniz, Pınar, 2009. "Does Fed Funds Target Interest Rate Lead Bank of England’s Bank Rate and European Central Bank’s Key Interest Rate?," MPRA Paper 14750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2011. "H.P. Minsky And Policies To Countervail Crises," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0102, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Monticini & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Are Euro Interest Rates led by FED Announcements?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    2. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    5. Kenneth B. Petersen & Vladimir Pozdnyakov, 2008. "Predicting the Fed," Working papers 2008-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    6. Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Federal Reserve transparency and financial market forecasts of short-term interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, June.
    8. Shu Wu, 2008. "Monetary Policy And Long‐Term Interest Rates," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 398-408, July.
    9. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    10. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
    11. Kwamie Dunbar, 2008. "The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox," Working papers 2008-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    12. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, June.
    13. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
    14. Nicholas Taylor, 2010. "The Determinants of Future U.S. Monetary Policy: High‐Frequency Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 399-420, March.
    15. Daniel L. Thornton, 2014. "The identification of the response of interest rates to monetary policy actions using market-based measures of monetary policy shocks," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 67-87, January.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    17. TUYSUZ, Sukriye, 2007. "Central Bank transparency and the U.S. interest rates level and volatility response to U.S. news," MPRA Paper 5217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2007. "Where Have the Monetary Surprises Gone? The Effects of FOMC Statements," IMF Working Papers 2007/185, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Richard Austin & Jeff Moore, 2002. "The behavior of federal funds futures prices over the monetary policy cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 87(Q2), pages 45-61.
    20. Dunbar, Kwamie & Amin, Abu S., 2015. "The nature and impact of the market forecasting errors in the Federal funds futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 174-192.
    21. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Term structure of interest rates.;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0507022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.