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Global Relative Price Shocks: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Cagliarini

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Warwick McKibbin

    (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University)

Abstract

We use the multi-sector and multi-country G-Cubed model to explore the potential role of three major shocks – to productivity, risk premia and US monetary policy – to explain the large movements in relative prices between 2002 and 2008. We find that productivity shocks were major drivers of relative price movements, while shocks to risk premia and US monetary policy contributed temporarily to some of the relative price dispersions we observe in the data. The effect of US monetary policy shocks on relative prices was most pronounced in countries that fix their currency to the US dollar. Those countries that float were largely shielded from these effects. We conclude that the shocks we consider cannot fully capture the magnitude of the relative price movements over this period, suggesting that other driving forces could also be responsible, including those outside of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Cagliarini & Warwick McKibbin, 2009. "Global Relative Price Shocks: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2009-10
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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2009/pdf/rdp2009-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
    2. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. "A simple approach to international monetary policy coordination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 177-196, June.
    3. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Dale W. Henderson, 1991. "Monetary Policy in Interdependent Economies: A Game-Theoretic Approach," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031787, December.
    4. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    5. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Stoeckel, Andrew, 2009. "The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5134, The World Bank.
    7. McKibbin, Warwick J & Vines, David, 2000. "Modelling Reality: The Need for Both Inter-temporal Optimization and Stickiness in Models for Policy-Making," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 106-137, Winter.
    8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Tulip, 2014. "The Effect of the Mining Boom on the Australian Economy," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 17-22, December.
    2. Valdivia, Daney, 2015. "Handbook on DSGE models: some useful tips in modeling a DSGE models," MPRA Paper 61347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    4. Babatunde .Wasiu. ADEOYE & Olufemi Muibi SAIBU, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 544-562, April.
    5. Elena Deryugina & Natalia Karlova & Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Tsvetkova, 2019. "The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 453-474, November.
    6. Warwick J McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2018. "Modelling a complex world: improving macro-models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 329-347.
    7. Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
    8. Mansur, Alfan, 2016. "The Impact of a Loss of Confidence in Emerging Market Economies to the World Economy: A Simulation with the G-Cubed Model," MPRA Paper 93870, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Nov 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity; relative prices; G-Cubed; risk premia; economic policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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