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Modelling Reality: The Need for Both Inter-temporal Optimization and Stickiness in Models for Policy-Making

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Author Info
McKibbin, Warwick J
Vines, David

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Abstract

There is a thriving debate on the usefulness of economic models for policy analysis which this paper explores. It argues that there is a need for models that incorporate both the modern intertemporal approach to macroeconomics and short-run ad-hoc behaviour. This need cannot be met by the simple models that permeate the macroeconomics literature, but requires large-scale simulation models such as the MSG2 and G-Cubed multi-country models. In particular, it is shown that the approach of these models gives insights into the adjustment into a number of historical episodes that are not well explained by simple macroeconomic frameworks: Reaganomics in the 1980s; German reunification in the early 1990s; fiscal consolidation in Europe in the 1990s; the formation of NAFTA; the Asian Crisis; and the current productivity boom in the USA. The paper also argues that using a well-defined theoretical specification but introducing real-world rigidities can also go some way towards explaining the so-called "six major puzzles in international macroeconomics" highlighted in a recent paper by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000). Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 16 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (Winter)
Pages: 106-37
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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:16:y:2000:i:4:p:106-37

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  1. Bennett T McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2001. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimising Agents and Sticky Prices," Discussion Papers 05, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Philip Lowe & Warwick McKibbin, 2003. "Discussion of 'Asset Prices, Financial Imbalances and Monetary Policy: Are Inflation Targets Enough?' and 'What the FOMC Says and Does When the Stock Market Booms'," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2001. "Policies and Prospects in Japan and The Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 01/131, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Warwick J. McKibbin & David Vines, 2003. "Changes in Equity Risk Perceptions: Global Consequences and Policy Responses," Departmental Working Papers 2003-15, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin & Yung Chul Park, 2006. "Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures," Discussion Paper Series 0601, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hsiao Chink Tang, 2006. "The Relative Importance Of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels In Malaysia," CAMA Working Papers 2006-23, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Warwick J. McKibbin & Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Consequences of China's WTO Accession on its Neighbors," Departmental Working Papers 2003-17, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jorg Scheibe, 2003. "The Chinese Output Gap During the Reform Period 1978-2002," Economics Series Working Papers 179, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca L Driver, . "Current accounts, net foreign assets and the implications of cyclical factors," Bank of England working papers 173, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Satish Chand, 2001. "How misaligned is the Australian real exchange rate?," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec01-2, International and Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Sujit Kapadia, 2003. "The Capital Stock and Equilibrium Unemployment: A New Theoretical Perspective," Economics Series Working Papers 181, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Nicoletta Batini & Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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