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The Consequences of China's WTO Accession for Its Neighbors

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  • Warwick J. McKibbin

    (Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies Australian National University Canberra, ACT 0200 Australia and The Brookings Institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20036 USA)

  • Wing Thye Woo

    (Economics Department University of California One Shields Avenue Davis, CA 95616, USA,)

Abstract

Our simulations of a global macroeconomic model suggest that China's WTO accession could create significant welfare losses in the ASEAN-4 if foreign direct investment (FDI) is significantly redirected away from these countries toward China, and if the ASEAN-4 countries are unable to implement policies to make up for the slower rate of technological diffusion from the reduced FDI inflow. If the ASEAN-4 do not fall behind technologically, then they will be able to find lucrative niches within the lengthened international manufacturing production chains. The ASEAN-4 must therefore strengthen their abilities to absorb new foreign technologies quickly and to engage in indigenous technical innovations. Copyright (c) 2003 Center for International Development and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Asian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 2 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1-38

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:2:y:2003:i:2:p:1-38

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  1. Wing Thye Woo, . "Chinese Economic Growth: Sources And Prospects," Department of Economics 96-08, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  2. Warwick J. McKibbin & K. K. Tang, 2000. "Trade and Financial Reform in China: Impacts on the World Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(8), pages 979-1003, 08.
  3. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  4. W. J. McKibbin & P. J. Wilcoxen, . "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Discussion Papers 118, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  5. Wing Thye Woo, 1999. "The Economics and Politics of Transition to an Open Market Economy: China," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 153, OECD Publishing.
  6. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2001. "Trade Liberalization in China’s Accession to WTO," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 421-445.
  7. McKibbin, Warwick J & Vines, David, 2000. "Modelling Reality: The Need for Both Inter-temporal Optimization and Stickiness in Models for Policy-Making," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 106-37, Winter.
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Cited by:
  1. Bussière, Matthieu & Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Evaluating China’s integration in world trade with a gravity model based benchmark," Working Paper Series 0693, European Central Bank.
  2. Rammal, Hussain Gulzar & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "The impact of regulatory quality on intra-foreign direct investment flows in the ASEAN markets," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 401-414, August.
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Hui Tong, 2005. "Is China's FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Elisha Houston & Julia Minty & Nathan Dal Bon, 2008. "Investment in East Asia since the Asian financial crisis," Economic Roundup, Treasury, Australian Government, issue 2, pages 13-34, July.
  5. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2006. "Fear of China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 226-240, April.
  6. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2011. "A structural modeling of exchange rate, prices and interest rates between Malaysia-China in the liberalization era," MPRA Paper 32955, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Sadhana Srivastava, 2010. "Implications Of The Economic Rise Of The PRC For Asean and India: Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," Working Papers id:2680, eSocialSciences.
  8. Benoît Mercereau, 2005. "FDI Flows to Asia," IMF Working Papers 05/189, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Elena IANCHOVICHINA & Will MARTIN, 2006. "Trade Impacts of China's World Trade Organization Accession," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 45-65.

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