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Rating firms and sensitivity analysis

Author

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  • Magni, Carlo Alberto
  • Malagoli, Stefano
  • Marchioni, Andrea
  • Mastroleo, Giovanni

Abstract

This paper introduces a model for rating a firm's default risk based on fuzzy logic and expert system and an associated model of sensitivity analysis (SA) for managerial purposes. The rating model automatically replicates the evaluation process of default risk performed by human experts. It makes use of a modular approach based on rules blocks and conditional implications. The SA model investigates the change in the firm's default risk under changes in the model inputs and employs recent results in the engineering literature of Sensitivity Analysis. In particular, it (i) allows the decomposition of the historical variation of default risk, (ii) identifies the most relevant parameters for the risk variation, and (iii) suggests managerial actions to be undertaken for improving the firm's rating.

Suggested Citation

  • Magni, Carlo Alberto & Malagoli, Stefano & Marchioni, Andrea & Mastroleo, Giovanni, 2019. "Rating firms and sensitivity analysis," MPRA Paper 95265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95265
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    Cited by:

    1. Baschieri, Davide & Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea, 2020. "Comprehensive Financial Modeling of Solar PV Systems," MPRA Paper 103886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea, 2019. "Performance measurement and decomposition of value added," MPRA Paper 95258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tafuro, Alessandra & Dammacco, Giuseppe & Esposito, Paolo & Mastroleo, Giovanni, 2022. "Rethinking performance measurement models using a fuzzy logic system approach: a performative exploration on ownership in waste management," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea & Baschieri, Davide, 2022. "Impact of financing and payout policy on the economic profitability of solar photovoltaic plants," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    5. Magni, Carlo Alberto & Marchioni, Andrea & Baschieri, Davide, 2023. "The Attribution Matrix and the joint use of Finite Change Sensitivity Index and Residual Income for value-based performance measurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 872-892.
    6. Carlo Alberto Magni & Andrea Marchioni, 2022. "Performance attribution, time-weighted rate of return, and clean finite change sensitivity index," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 62-72, February.
    7. P.-C.G. Vassiliou, 2020. "Non-Homogeneous Semi-Markov and Markov Renewal Processes and Change of Measure in Credit Risk," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit rating; default risk; fuzzy logic; fuzzy expert system; sensitivity analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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