IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/corfin/v59y2019icp119-141.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are credit rating agencies still relevant? Evidence on certification from Moody's credit watches

Author

Listed:
  • Driss, Hamdi
  • Massoud, Nadia
  • Roberts, Gordon S.

Abstract

We show that a rating agency can provide certification for corporate borrowers through the mechanism of a credit watch with direction downgrade. We find that firms with watch-preceded rating confirmations (firms for which original ratings are confirmed after a credit watch warning) experience an increase in their long-term debt financing and ramp up their investment activities following the credit watch period. These firms are able to maintain their profitability from before to after the watch period, while we find no such evidence for firms with watch-preceded rating downgrades. Among firms with confirmed ratings, those with less access to credit markets obtain more long-term debt financing at a lower cost of debt capital only in the post-watch period, indicating that rating agencies can help alleviate firm capital constraints. The certification effects persist after controlling for potential endogeneity bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Driss, Hamdi & Massoud, Nadia & Roberts, Gordon S., 2019. "Are credit rating agencies still relevant? Evidence on certification from Moody's credit watches," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 119-141.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:59:y:2019:i:c:p:119-141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.08.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119916300992
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.08.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Derrien & Ambrus Kecskés, 2013. "The Real Effects of Financial Shocks: Evidence from Exogenous Changes in Analyst Coverage," Post-Print hal-00852356, HAL.
    2. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
    3. Lily Hua Fang, 2005. "Investment Bank Reputation and the Price and Quality of Underwriting Services," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2729-2761, December.
    4. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    5. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas & Joel Shapiro, 2012. "The Credit Ratings Game," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 85-112, February.
    6. John R. Graham & Michael L. Lemmon & James S. Schallheim, 1998. "Debt, Leases, Taxes, and the Endogeneity of Corporate Tax Status," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 131-162, February.
    7. Michael Faulkender & Mitchell A. Petersen, 2006. "Does the Source of Capital Affect Capital Structure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 45-79.
    8. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    9. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
    10. Dion Bongaerts & K. J. Martijn Cremers & William N. Goetzmann, 2012. "Tiebreaker: Certification and Multiple Credit Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 113-152, February.
    11. Tang, Tony T., 2009. "Information asymmetry and firms' credit market access: Evidence from Moody's credit rating format refinement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 325-351, August.
    12. Paul Gompers & Joy Ishii & Andrew Metrick, 2003. "Corporate Governance and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 107-156.
    13. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn & Anjolein Schmeits, 2006. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 81-118.
    14. Becker, Bo & Milbourn, Todd, 2011. "How did increased competition affect credit ratings?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 493-514, September.
    15. Karampatsas, Nikolaos & Petmezas, Dimitris & Travlos, Nickolaos G., 2014. "Credit ratings and the choice of payment method in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 474-493.
    16. Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Real Effects of Debt Certification: Evidence from the Introduction of Bank Loan Ratings," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 1659-1691, April.
    17. Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2012. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 471-492.
    18. Bannier, Christina E. & Hirsch, Christian W., 2010. "The economic function of credit rating agencies - What does the watchlist tell us?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3037-3049, December.
    19. An, Heng (Hunter) & Chan, Kam C., 2008. "Credit ratings and IPO pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 584-595, December.
    20. Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2003. "Enjoying the Quiet Life? Corporate Governance and Managerial Preferences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(5), pages 1043-1075, October.
    21. Hovakimian, Armen & Opler, Tim & Titman, Sheridan, 2001. "The Debt-Equity Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, March.
    22. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    23. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "The effect of bond rating changes on common stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89, September.
    24. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
    25. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
    26. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    27. Toni M. Whited & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Financial Constraints Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 531-559.
    28. Thomas J. Chemmanur & Shan He & Debarshi K. Nandy, 2010. "The Going-Public Decision and the Product Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 1855-1908.
    29. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1995. "What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1421-1460, December.
    30. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kathleen M. Kahle & William F. Maxwell & Danielle Xu, 2009. "Measuring Abnormal Bond Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4219-4258, October.
    31. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    32. Charles J. Hadlock & Joshua R. Pierce, 2010. "New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints: Moving Beyond the KZ Index," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 1909-1940.
    33. Darren J. Kisgen, 2006. "Credit Ratings and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1035-1072, June.
    34. Cantor, Richard, 2004. "An introduction to recent research on credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2565-2573, November.
    35. Whited, Toni M, 1992. "Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-1460, September.
    36. Lucian Bebchuk & Alma Cohen & Allen Ferrell, 2009. "What Matters in Corporate Governance?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 783-827, February.
    37. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, February.
    38. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
    39. François Derrien & Ambrus Kecskés, 2013. "The Real Effects of Financial Shocks: Evidence from Exogenous Changes in Analyst Coverage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1407-1440, August.
    40. Opp, Christian C. & Opp, Marcus M. & Harris, Milton, 2013. "Rating agencies in the face of regulation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 46-61.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Attig, Najah & Driss, Hamdi & El Ghoul, Sadok, 2021. "Credit ratings quality in uncertain times," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Attig, Najah & Driss, Hamdi & El Ghoul, Sadok, 2020. "Rating standards around the world: A puzzle?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha & Norden, Lars & Schiereck, Dirk, 2021. "To change or not to change? The CDS market response of firms on credit watch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Aggarwal, Nidhi & Singh, Manish K. & Thomas, Susan, 2023. "Do decreases in Distance-to-Default predict rating downgrades?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Winnie P. H. Poon & Jianfu Shen, 2020. "The roles of rating outlooks: the predictor of creditworthiness and the monitor of recovery efforts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1063-1091, October.
    6. Kamran Ahmed Siddiqui & Ishtiaq Ahmed Bajwa & Faisal Al-Hudithi & Tarig Eltayeb & Asma Khatoon & Suliman Bawardi, 2021. "Entrepreneurs' opinion towards credit rating in Saudi Arabia," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 9(2), pages 186-197, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brogaard, Jonathan & Koski, Jennifer L. & Siegel, Andrew F., 2019. "Do upgrades matter? Evidence from trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 54-77.
    2. Aktas, Nihat & Petmezas, Dimitris & Servaes, Henri & Karampatsas, Nikolaos, 2021. "Credit ratings and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Stefano Lovo & Philippe Raimbourg & Federica Salvadè, 2022. "Credit rating agencies, information asymmetry and US bond liquidity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(9-10), pages 1863-1896, October.
    4. Kraft, Pepa & Xie, Yuan & Zhou, Ling, 2020. "The intraday timing of rating changes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Valentina Bruno & Jess Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia, 2016. "Does Regulatory Certification Affect the Information Content of Credit Ratings?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1578-1597, June.
    6. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2021. "Market expectations and the impact of credit rating on the IPOs of U.S. banks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 587-610.
    7. Chou, Ting-Kai & Cheng, Jia-Chi, 2012. "Credit ratings and excess value of diversification," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 266-281.
    8. Shoaib Ali & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Relationship between Credit Rating, Capital Structure and Earning Management Behaviour: Evidence from Pakistani Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:121, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    9. Tao Wang, 2016. "Time-Varying Rating Standards and the Distorted Incentives of Credit Rating Agencies," Global Credit Review (GCR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 21-39.
    10. Kiesel, Florian, 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81265, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    11. Tang, Tony T., 2009. "Information asymmetry and firms' credit market access: Evidence from Moody's credit rating format refinement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 325-351, August.
    12. Fischer, Thomas, 2015. "Market structure and rating strategies in credit rating markets – A dynamic model with matching of heterogeneous bond issuers and rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 39-56.
    13. Kiesel, F., 2016. "The effect of credit and rating events on credit default swap and equity markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 81247, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    14. Cornaggia, Jess & Cornaggia, Kimberly J. & Xia, Han, 2016. "Revolving doors on Wall Street," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 400-419.
    15. Xia, Han, 2014. "Can investor-paid credit rating agencies improve the information quality of issuer-paid rating agencies?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 450-468.
    16. Dang, Man & Puwanenthiren, Premkanth & Jones, Edward & Nguyen, Thieu Quang & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Nadarajah, Sivathaasan, 2022. "Strategic archetypes, credit ratings, and cost of debt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Gerald J. Lobo & Luc Paugam & Hervé Stolowy & Pierre Astolfi, 2017. "The Effect of Business and Financial Market Cycles on Credit Ratings: Evidence from the Last Two Decades," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(1), pages 59-93, March.
    18. Javed I. Ahmed, 2014. "Competition in Lending and Credit Ratings," Working Papers 14-01, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    19. Bannier, Christina E. & Hirsch, Christian W., 2010. "The economic function of credit rating agencies - What does the watchlist tell us?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3037-3049, December.
    20. Dong Chen, 2014. "The Non-monotonic Effect of Board Independence on Credit Ratings," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 145-171, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit rating agency; Credit watch; Certification; Corporate outcomes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:59:y:2019:i:c:p:119-141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcorpfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.