IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/93752.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Memantau Risiko Makro Finansial di dalam Perekonomian Indonesia
[Surveillance on the Macro-financial Risks of Indonesia's Economy]

Author

Listed:
  • Mansur, Alfan

Abstract

This paper adopts model of MCM Spidergram: Macro Financial Environment Tool (Ms Muffet) developed by the IMF as an analytical tool for assessment of risks and macro-financial conditions which affect Indonesian financial system stability. This model comprises 68 indicators merged into 6 composite indices reflecting 4 risks and 2 macro-financial conditions. The results show that this model perform well in signaling building up risks of instability in the Indonesian financial system during period of 2015 – 2016. Therefore, this model can be a valuable tool complementary to existing tools used to gauge Indonesian financial system stability. In addition, this model is also be able to cover a number of drawbacks arising in the previous models to measure financial system stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mansur, Alfan, 2017. "Memantau Risiko Makro Finansial di dalam Perekonomian Indonesia [Surveillance on the Macro-financial Risks of Indonesia's Economy]," MPRA Paper 93752, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 May 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/93752/1/MPRA_paper_93752.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prasanna Gai & Nicholas Vause, 2006. "Measuring Investors' Risk Appetite," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    2. Ricardo Cervantes & Mr. Phakawa Jeasakul & Joseph Maloney & Ms. Li L Ong, 2014. "Ms. Muffet, the Spider(gram) and the Web of Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2014/099, International Monetary Fund.
    3. E Philip Davis, 1996. "The Role of Institutional Investors in the Evolution of Financial Structure and Behaviour," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Malcom Edey (ed.),The Future of the Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Fiscal deficits, public debt, and government solvency: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 354-380, December.
    5. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2016. "What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 103-118.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 878-895, November.
    7. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    8. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "Lessons from the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.
    9. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2004. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0408001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Michel Juillard & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Jared Laxton, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 2008/280, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mr. Reinout De Bock & Mr. Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/071, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Darrell Duffie, 2008. "Innovations in credit risk transfer: implications for financial stability," BIS Working Papers 255, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    14. Xavier Freixas, 1999. "Optimal Bail Out Policy, Conditionality and Creative Ambiguity," FMG Discussion Papers dp327, Financial Markets Group.
    15. Breton, R. & Pinto, C. & Weber, P.F., 2012. "Banks, moral hazard, and public debts," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 57-70, April.
    16. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    18. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    19. Jared Laxton & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Ioan Carabenciov & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2008/279, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Arsenio M Balisacan & Ernesto M Pernia & Abuzar Asra, 2003. "Revisiting Growth and Poverty Reduction in Indonesia," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Ernesto M Pernia & Anil B Deolalikar (ed.), Poverty, Growth, and Institutions in Developing Asia, chapter 6, pages 191-218, Palgrave Macmillan.
    21. Metiu, Norbert, 2012. "Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 35-38.
    22. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    23. Kar‐yiu Wong & Richard Y. K. Ho, 2002. "The Asian Crisis, 1997," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 1-1, February.
    24. A. Berg & C. Pattillo, 1999. "What Caused the Asian Crises: An Early Warning System Approach," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 285-334, November.
    25. Reint Gropp & Hendrik Hakenes & Isabel Schnabel, 2011. "Competition, Risk-shifting, and Public Bail-out Policies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2084-2120.
    26. Nadezda Sinenko & Olga Lielkalne, 2015. "Cobweb diagram as a tool for assesing changes in the most important financial stability risks," Discussion Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    27. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    28. Arsenio Balisacan & Ernesto Pernia & Abuzar Asra, 2003. "Revisiting growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia: what do subnational data show?," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 329-351.
    29. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Mr. Mari Pangestu & Mr. Manggi Habir, 2002. "The Boom, Bust and Restructuring of Indonesian Banks," IMF Working Papers 2002/066, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 01.
    33. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 1999/178, International Monetary Fund.
    34. James A. Clouse, 2013. "Monetary policy and financial stability risks: an example," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Yiqun Wu, 2011. "Rapid Credit Growth: Boon or Boom-Bust?," IMF Working Papers 2011/241, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Xavier Freixas, 1999. "Optimal bail out policy, conditionality and constructive ambiguity," Economics Working Papers 400, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo Cervantes & Mr. Phakawa Jeasakul & Joseph Maloney & Ms. Li L Ong, 2014. "Ms. Muffet, the Spider(gram) and the Web of Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2014/099, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ashima Goyal & Rajeswari Sengupta & Akhilesh Verma, 2019. "External debt financing and macroeconomic instability in emerging market economies," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-013, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Filippo Gori, 2016. "Can Reforms Promoting Growth Increase Financial Fragility?: An Empirical Assessment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1340, OECD Publishing.
    4. Helios Herrera & Guillermo Ordoñez & Christoph Trebesch, 2020. "Political Booms, Financial Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(2), pages 507-543.
    5. Avdjiev, Stefan & Binder, Stephan & Sousa, Ricardo, 2021. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Timothy C. Irwin, 2016. "Getting the Dog to Bark: Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    8. Stracca, Livio & Scheubel, Beatrice, 2016. "What do we know about the global financial safety net? Rationale, data and possible evolution," Occasional Paper Series 177, European Central Bank.
    9. Warapong Wongwachara & Bovonvich Jindarak & Nuwat Nookhwun & Sophon Tunyavetchakit & Chutipha Klungjaturavet, 2018. "Integrating Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: A New Framework," PIER Discussion Papers 100, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    11. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part II: Financial cycles," Economics wp72, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    14. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    16. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 193-213.
    17. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    18. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    19. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial system stability; Ms Muffet; risks; macro-�financial conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.