Heterogeneous Consumer Expectations and Monopoly Pricing for Durables with Network Externalities

This paper studies the optimal pricing and diffusion of durable goods that exhibit positive network externalities, when consumers are heterogeneous in their expectations about future network sizes. We consider the existence of naive consumers, as well as of sophisticated consumers having fulfilled expectations. We find that the firm charges the sequential-diffusion pricing that makes sophisticated consumers function as early adopters, unless consumers quickly become bored with using the goods and/or unless the firm heavily discounts its future profits. We also compare the profitability of three possible pricing strategies with different commitment powers: fixed, responsive, and pre-announced pricing.