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Macedonia’s exports and the gravity model

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  • Josheski, Dushko
  • Apostolov, Mico

Abstract

This paper examines the export performance of the Republic of Macedonia to its main trading partners; hence we focus on the major importing countries which are most present in the Macedonian trade balance. The data used in this article are analyzed with gravity model, which has good characteristics and very stable performance. Further, the data sample is formed on the Balkan countries i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, Slovenia, Turkey and Serbia and Montenegro. The results show that the domestic country GDP is positively correlated with the exports from the source country to target countries and that Balkan countries have positive propensities to import from Macedonia, however it was found that populations of source country and target country are negatively correlated with exports from the source country to target countries. Additionally, the business cycles had no positive effect on Macedonian export to the target countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48180.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48180

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Keywords: exports; gravity model; Macedonia;

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  1. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Elhanan Helpman & Paul Krugman, 1987. "Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026258087x, December.
  3. Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, 2003. "Gravity model: An application to trade between regional blocs," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 174-187, June.
  4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  8. Evenett, S. J. & Keller, W., 1994. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems 9713, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  9. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  10. Lev Freinkman & Evgeny Polyakov & Carolina Revenco, 2004. "Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14933, August.
  11. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Decker, Jessica Henson, 2007. "Democracy and Trade: An Empirical Study," MPRA Paper 6077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  13. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Institutions, trade, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 133-162, January.
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