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Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries

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Author Info

  • Lev Freinkman
  • Evgeny Polyakov
  • Carolina Revenco

Abstract

The study provides a detailed quantitative analysis, based on standard econometric models, of the trends and the configuration of trade of the CIS countries, with an emphasis on its low income members. It also contains an analysis of the CIS countries' trade potential and its realization in a comparative perspective, as well as examination of the nature of the existing CIS intra-bloc trade. The study revealed no evidence that the CIS countries as a group underperform significantly in terms of either trade openness or export levels when compared to the countries of similar per capita GDP and population size. This means, however, that the low-income economies in the CIS (CIS-7) have been performing on average just marginally better than other low-income countries and that, overall, they have been falling behind the countries that benefit most from globalization. Overall, progress in the trade area was slower in the CIS-7 countries than in the higher income CIS members. This is reflected in: (i) lower overall export levels and slower export growth in the second half of the 1990s; (ii) higher trade deficits; (iii) lower share of manufacturing exports; (iv) incomplete re-orientation of trade flows from the CIS to global markets; and (v) lower incidence of intra-industry trade. The study found that the CIS free trade area is, on balance, a beneficial, trade-facilitating bloc. It features a free trade regime, agreements on mutual recognition of standards, and non-restrictive rules of origin. There is no evidence so far that the CIS integration is of the "South-South" type and thus may be harmful for some of its members. However, the potential benefits of CIS trade integration remain badly underutilized. The study suggests several directions for strengthening the legal and administrative framework for intra-CIS trade arrangements.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by The World Bank in its series World Bank Publications with number 14933 and published in 2004-06.

ISBN: 0-8213-5896-0
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:14933

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Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
Phone: (202) 477-1234
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Web page: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org
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Related research

Keywords: Transport and Trade Logistics International Economics and Trade - Free Trade International Economics and Trade - Trade Policy Economic Theory and Research Environmental Economics and Policies Transport;

References

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Polyakov, Evgeny, 2001. "Changing trade patterns after conflict resolution in the South Caucasus," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2593, The World Bank.
  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1991. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number blan91-1, October.
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  4. Michael Roberts & Peter Wehrheim, 2001. "Regional trade agreements and WTO accession of CIS countries," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, Springer, vol. 36(6), pages 315-323, November.
  5. Antonio Spilimbergo & Ernesto Stein, 1998. "The Welfare Implications of Trading Blocs among Countries with Different Endowments," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Elhanan Helpman & Assaf Razin (ed.), 1991. "International Trade and Trade Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262081997, December.
  10. Piazolo, Daniel, 1996. "Trade integration between Eastern and Western Europe: Politics follows the market," Kiel Working Papers 745, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  11. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," NBER Working Papers 6562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 9305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Tarr, David G., 1993. "How moving to world prices affects the terms of trade in 15 countries of the former Soviet Union," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1074, The World Bank.
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  16. Oli Havrylyshyn & Hassan Al-Atrash, 1998. "Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 98/22, International Monetary Fund.
  17. K. Smarzynska, Beata, 2001. "Does Relative Location Matter for Bilateral Trade Flows? An Extension of the Gravity Model," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 379-398.
  18. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March.
  19. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
  20. Hoeckman, Bernard, 2002. "Economic Development and the World Trade Organization after Doha," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2851, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Libman, Alexander, 2008. "Federalism and regionalism in transition countries: A survey," MPRA Paper 29196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Sviltana Taran, 2008. "ENEPO: EU Eastern Neighbourhood - Economic Potential and Future Development," CASE Network Studies and Analyses, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research 0371, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  3. Libman, Alexander & Vinokurov, Evgeny, 2010. "Is it really different? Patterns of regionalisation in the post-Soviet Central Asia," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 155, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  4. John Malcolm Dowling & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2005. "Central Asia: Mapping Future Prospects," Working Papers, Singapore Management University, School of Economics 05-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Feb 2006.
  5. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Martin Raiser, 2010. "A Gravity Approach to Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research Department 2010/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  6. Harry G. Broadman, 2005. "From Disintegration to Reintegration : Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union in International Trade," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7511, October.
  7. Pomfret, Richard, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Kazakhstan," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper, World Bank 48360, World Bank.
  8. David Dyker & Michael Emerson & Michael Gasiorek & Peter Holmes & Malgorzata Jakubiak & Andre Jungmittag & Vicki Korchagin & Alina Kudina & Evgeny Polyakov & Andrei Roudoi & Gevorg Torosyan, 2008. "Economic Feasibility, General Economic Impact and Implications of a Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and Armenia," CASE Network Reports 0080, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  9. World Bank, 2004. "Ukraine : Trade Policy Study, Volume 2. Main Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15656, The World Bank.
  10. Johannes F. Linn & David Tiomkin, 2005. "Economic Integration of Eurasia: Opportunities and Challenges of Global Significance," CASE Network Studies and Analyses, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research 0298, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  11. Idrisov, Georgy & Taganov, Boris, 2013. "Regional Trade Integration in the CIS Area," MPRA Paper 50952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Josheski, Dushko & Apostolov, Mico, 2013. "Macedonia’s exports and the gravity model," MPRA Paper 48180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. World Bank, 2005. "Ukraine's Trade Policy : A Strategy for Integration into Global Trade," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7431, October.
  14. Patrizia Tumbarello, 2005. "Regional Trade Integration and WTO Accession," IMF Working Papers 05/94, International Monetary Fund.
  15. World Bank, 2005. "Belarus : Window of Opportunity to Enhance Competitiveness and Sustain Economic Growth, A Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for the Republic of Belarus, Volume 1, Main Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8353, The World Bank.
  16. De Kort, Joop & Dragneva, Rilka, 2006. "Russia's role in fostering the CIS trade regime," MPRA Paper 21291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Malcom Dowling & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2006. "Central Asia after fifteen years of transition: growth, regional cooperation, and policy choices," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 13(2), pages 113-144, December.
  18. Kurmanalieva, Elvira & Vinokurov, Evgeny, 2011. "Holding together or falling apart:Results of gravity equation of the CIS trade," MPRA Paper 32003, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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