I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of California. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order as riots, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder, or attacks index found is optimal, and warns that terrorist attacks against the U.S., and riots in California have created estimated turning point dates marked by those tragic events. The index peaked to point out the World Trade Center Bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001, and for California it amazingly well captured the riots of 1965 and 1992. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks through the construction of Attacks indexes across the U.S. Other indexes constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf. These indexes must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks, and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
4547.
Find related papers by JEL classification: K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
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