I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of Arizona (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder warns that terrorist attacks in the U.S. soil, and foreign wars fought by the country from 1941 to 2005, have affected Arizona creating estimated turning point dates clearly marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation: the shut down in power in NYC in 1965, the World Trade Center Bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001. Other indexes already constructed include the attacks indexes for the U.S (http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf), New York City (http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf), and Massachusetts (http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf). These indexes must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks, and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
4360.
Find related papers by JEL classification: D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
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