I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of Arkansas. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part does not coincide with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder shows that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have not affected Arkansas, presenting this State as immune to the suffering of the nation, and to the occurrence of attacks. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Arkansas. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf, Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf, Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf., California http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4547/01/MPRA_paper_4547.pdf., Washington http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4604/01/MPRA_paper_4604.pdf. , and Ohio http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4605/01/MPRA_paper_4605.pdf. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
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Find related papers by JEL classification: K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
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