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Terrorist murder, cycles of violence, and attacks index for the City of Philadelphia during the last two centuries

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Author Info
Gómez-sorzano, Gustavo

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Abstract

I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the reconstructed time series of murder of the City of Philadelphia (1826-2004). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in to the United States. The estimated cyclical terrorist murder component warns that terrorist attacks to the U.S, have affected Philadelphia City creating turning point dates marked by those attacks. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S, and Homeland Security identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Philadelphia. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S. http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf, New York State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3776/01/MPRA_paper_3776.pdf, New York City http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf, Arizona State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4360/01/MPRA_paper_4360.pdf, Massachusetts State http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4342/01/MPRA_paper_4342.pdf., California http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4547/01/MPRA_paper_4547.pdf., Washington http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4604/01/MPRA_paper_4604.pdf., Ohio http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4605/01/MPRA_paper_4605.pdf, and Arkansas. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4606/01/MPRA_paper_4606.pdf. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4783.

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Date of creation: 29 Jan 2007
Date of revision: 08 Sep 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4783

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Related research
Keywords: A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Levitt, Steven D, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Newbold, Paul, 1990. "Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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