Decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth century in the U.S
AbstractAbstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder in the United States (1900-2004). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, alternation in power, social, and political unrest overseas as wars, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in the country. The cyclical component estimated shows that, 9/11 2001 terrorist attacks occurred, two years after the end of the last declining cycle of 1994-1999. The estimated cyclical terrorist murder component warns, that terrorist attacks in U.S., soil from 1923 to 2004, historically occur in, and around the vicinity of the turning points, of whether a declining, or ascending cycle, and so, it must be used in future research to construct a model for explaining the causal reasons for its movement across time, and for forecasting cyclical terrorist murder, and terrorist attacks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1145.
Date of creation: 13 Jun 2006
Date of revision: 11 Nov 2006
Keywords: United States; Colombia; murder; Beveridge-Nelson; business cycle; decomposition; time-series; domestic terrorism; cyclical terrorist murder; cyclical terrorist attacks; cyclical terrorist murder and attacks indicator;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
- O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
- N41 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
- K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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