Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation
AbstractBoth theory and the empirical evidence for a broad range of countries have identified a negative relationship between domestic and foreign saving. Still, based on the experience of the 1990s, a popular view has emerged that domestic and foreign saving are positively related in Asia and negatively related in Latin America. We argue that this popular discussion does not discriminate between trends in domestic saving (which are very different in the two regions) and the cyclical component of saving, which is linked to capital flows. We show that, when trend and cyclical components of domestic saving and capital flows are properly taken into account, the two regions do not differ in the short-run response of domestic saving to capital inflows. We conclude that the main differences pertain to the long-run behavior of saving rates, which are driven by trends in demographic factors, per capita GDP, and other factors that have little to do with fluctuations in capital flows.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13704.
Date of creation: Oct 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Development Econommics 1.57(1998): pp. 45-66
international capital flows saving investment cycles;
Other versions of this item:
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998. "Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: a reinterpretation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 45-66, October.
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots,"
360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1996.
"Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison,"
6978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
- Masao Ogaki & Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1995. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle -Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Working Papers 95/3, International Monetary Fund.
- Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
- Masao Ogaki & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1078-1098, October.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao, 1995. "Measuring intertemporal substitution: The role of durable goods," MPRA Paper 13690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ogaki, M & Reinhart, C-M, 1995. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution : The Role of Durable Goods," RCER Working Papers 404, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Haque, Nadeem U & Montiel, Peter, 1989. "Consumption in Developing Countries: Tests for Liquidity Constraintsand Finite Horizons," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 408-15, August.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1994. "Capital inflows to Latin America," MPRA Paper 13406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nicola Rossi, 1989. "Dependency Rates and Private Savings Behavior in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 166-181, March.
- Vaidyanathan, Geetha, 1993. "Consumption, liquidity constraints and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 591-610.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Dunnaway, Steve, 1996.
"Dealing with capital inflows: Are there any lessons?,"
13764, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, C.M. & Dunaway, S., 1996. "Dealing with Capital Inflows. Are There Any Lessons?," Research Paper 28, World Institute for Development Economics Research.
- Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(2), pages 305-33, May.
- Kokila Doshi, 1994. "Determinants Of The Saving Rate: An International Comparison," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 37-45, 01.
- Nicola Rossi, 1988. "Government Spending, the Real Interest Rate, and the Behavior of Liquidity-Constrained Consumers in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 104-140, March.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1995. "Saving behavior in low- and middle-income developing countries," MPRA Paper 13757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Giovannini, Alberto, 1985. "Saving and the real interest rate in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 197-217, August.
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Hamid Faruqee & Aasim M. Husain, 1995. "Saving Trends in Southeast Asia: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 95/39, International Monetary Fund.
- Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1996. "Saving and Investment: Paradigms, Puzzles, Policies," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 87-117, February.
- Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January.
- Marwan Thanoon & Ahmad Baharumshah, 2005. "What happened to savings during the financial crisis—a dynamic panel analysis of Asian-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 257-275, December.
- Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, 2009.
"The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy,"
BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
005406, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, . "The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy," Borradores de Economia 557, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Menzie David Chinn & Eswar Prasad, 2000.
"Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries - An Empirical Exploration,"
IMF Working Papers
00/46, International Monetary Fund.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Thanoon, Marwan Abdul-Malik, 2006. "Foreign capital flows and economic growth in East Asian countries," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 70-83.
- Sherstnev, Mikhail, 2009. "Main sources of finance for development: retrospective view on the evolution of pre-crisis ideas," MPRA Paper 22433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Merih Uctum & Remzi Uctum, 2005. "Portfolio Flows, Foreign Direct Investment, Crises," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 224, Society for Computational Economics.
- Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Thanoon, Marwan A. & Rashid, Salim, 2003. "Saving dynamics in the Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 827-845, January.
- Nejib Hachicha, 2003. "Capital Inflows-National Saving Dynamics in Tunisia: Evidence from Cointegration, Weak Exogeneity and Simultaneous Error Correction Modelling," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 43-60.
- Zuzana Brixiová & Léonce Ndikumana, 2011.
"Supporting Africa’s Post-Crisis Growth: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies,"
wp254, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- Zuzana Brixiová & Léonce Ndikumana & Kaouther Abderrahim, 2011. "Supporting Africa’S Post-Crisis Growth: The Role Of Macroeconomic Policies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1008, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Gala, Paulo Sérgio de Oliveira Simões & Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser, 2008.
"Why foreign savings fail to cause growth,"
Textos para discussÃ£o
159, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Paulo Gala & Marcos Rocha, 2011. "Real exchange rates,domestic and foreign savings: the missing link," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 76, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 708-718, September.
- Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 1999. "Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 143-180.
- AFZAL, Muhammad, 2013. "National Savings And Foreign Capital In Pakistan," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(2), pages 197-206.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.