Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of Massachusetts. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder warns that terrorist attacks in the U.S. from 1940 to 2005, have affected Massachusetts creating estimated turning point dates clearly marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation: the shut down in power in NYC in 1965, the World Trade Center Bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001. The index for Massachusetts foretold with amazing precision those attacks, and must be used as a proxy for attacks for the Whole U.S along with indexes already constructed for the nation (http://mpra.ub.uni-uenchen.de/1145/01/MPRA_paper_1145.pdf) and, New York City (http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/01/MPRA_paper_4200.pdf). The indexes must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism on the U.S. economy.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
4342.
Find related papers by JEL classification: N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models C29 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Other
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