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The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Gupta, Poonam

Abstract

We consider the determinants of exports of services, distinguishing between modern and traditional services. We consider both the growth of export volumes and so-called export surges – periods of rapid sustained export growth. We ask whether the determinants of export growth rates and surges differ between merchandise, traditional services and modern services and whether developing countries are different. Our findings confirm the importance of the real exchange rate for export growth. We find that the effect of the real exchange rate is even stronger for exports of services than exports of goods; it is especially strong for exports of modern services. While the evidence of differential effects between advanced and developing countries is weaker, our results nonetheless suggest that as developing countries shift from exporting primarily commodities and merchandise to exporting traditional and modern services in the course of their development, appropriate policies toward the real exchange rate become even more important.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43358.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43358

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Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Exports; Services; Traditional Services;

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References

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  1. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
  2. Haddad, Mona & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2010. "Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, The World Bank, issue 20, pages 1-5, June.
  3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  4. Luis Servén, 2003. "Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCS," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 212-218, February.
  5. Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2009. "The crisis-resilience of services trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 4917, The World Bank.
  6. Luis Servén, 2003. "ERRATUM: Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 492-492, May.
  7. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
  8. Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2006. "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research 182006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. Simon Johnson & Jonathan D. Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," NBER Working Papers 13120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2012. "Export surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 387-395.
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Cited by:
  1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2012. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: an analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," MPRA Paper 43118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Katalin Bodnár & György Molnár & Gábor Pellényi & Lajos Szabó & Judit Várhegyi, 2013. "Dynamics of the trade balance and developments in exports and imports," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 8(Special), pages 37-45, October.
  3. Augusto de la Torre & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Samuel Pienknagura, . "Latin America’s Deceleration and the Exchange Rate Buffer : LAC Semiannual Report, October 2013," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16107, The World Bank.
  4. Brixiova, Zuzana & Ncube, Mthuli, 2014. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth in Zimbabwe: Does the Currency Regime Matter?," IZA Discussion Papers 8398, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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