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Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long

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Author Info

  • Haddad, Mona

    ()
    (World Bank)

  • Pancaro, Cosimo

Abstract

A policy of managed real undervaluation may have been an important factor behind the success of East Asia’s export-led growth model. But current discussions over the value of China’s currency demonstrate the controversy this kind of policy can generate. Although a managed real undervaluation can enhance domestic competitiveness, it is difficult to sustain—both economically and politically—in the post-crisis environment. We show that a real undervaluation works only for low-income countries, and only in the medium term.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The World Bank in its journal Economic Premise.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 20 (June)
Pages: 1-5

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Handle: RePEc:wbk:prmecp:ep20

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Keywords: exchangte rates; undervaluation; exports; growth; developing countries; China; currency; East Asia; competitiveness; renminbi;

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References

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  1. Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on United States exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 299-308, September.
  2. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Baccheta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-16, Swiss Finance Institute.
  3. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February.
  4. Chit, Myint Moe & Rizov, Marian & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," MPRA Paper 9014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  6. Luis Servén, 2003. "Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCS," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 212-218, February.
  7. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
  8. William Easterly, 2003. "National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal," Working Papers 27, Center for Global Development.
  9. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  10. Arvind Subramanian & Jonathan David Ostry & Simon Johnson, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa," IMF Working Papers 07/52, International Monetary Fund.
  11. B. Bosworth & S. M. Collins & Y. Chen, . "Accounting for Difference in Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 115, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  12. Simon Johnson & Jonathan D. Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," NBER Working Papers 13120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Korinek, Anton & Serven, Luis, 2010. "Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation : static losses, dynamic gains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5250, The World Bank.
  15. Luis Servén, 2003. "ERRATUM: Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 492-492, May.
  16. Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Pomfret, Richard & Pontines, Victor, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Regional Trade Agreements: A Case of Conflicted Interests?," ADBI Working Papers 436, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  2. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 577-605, July.
  3. Nasha Ananchotikul & Nuwat Nookhwun & Paiboon Pongpaichet & Songklod Rastapana & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2010. "The Future of Monetary Policy: Roles of Financial Stability and Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2010-07, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  4. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.
  5. Anson, José & Boffa, Mauro & Helble, Matthias, 2014. "A Short-Run Analysis of Exchange Rates and International Trade with an Application to Australia, New Zealand, and Japan," ADBI Working Papers 471, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  6. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2013. "The real exchange rate and export growth : are services different ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6629, The World Bank.
  7. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  8. Juan Marchetti & Michele Ruta & Robert Teh, 2012. "Trade Imbalances and Multilateral Trade Cooperation," CESifo Working Paper Series 4050, CESifo Group Munich.

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