I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder in the state of New York. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in the state. The estimated cyclical terrorist murder component warns that terrorist attacks in the state of New York from 1962 to 2005, historically occur in the estimated turning point dates, of whether a declining, or ascending cycle, and so, it must be used in future research to construct a model for explaining the causal reasons for its movement across time, and for forecasting terrorist murder and attacks for New York.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
3776.
Find related papers by JEL classification: H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913- H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Health, Education, and Welfare K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
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