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Terrorist murder, cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries

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Author Info
Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

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Abstract

: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder of New York City – NYC (1797-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in social order, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks in the city. The estimated cyclical terrorist murder component warns that terrorist attacks in New York City from 1826 to 2005, historically occur in the estimated turning point dates, of whether a declining, or ascending cycle, and so, it must be used in future research to construct a model for explaining the causal reasons for its movement across time, and for forecasting terrorist murder and attacks for New York City.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4200/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4200.

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Date of creation: 20 Jan 2007
Date of revision: 11 Feb 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4200

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Related research
Keywords: Model of cyclical terrorist murder for Colombia 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019 the econometrics of violence terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019 scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019 decomposing violence: crime cycles in the twentieth in the United States using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks decomposing violence: terrorist murder and attacks in New York State from 1933 to 2005.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Levitt, Steven D, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Newbold, Paul, 1990. "Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series : Another economical computational method," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 141-142, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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