Forecasting Exchange-Rates via Local Approximation Methods and Neural Networks
AbstractThere has been an increased number of papers in the literature in recent years, applying several methods and techniques for exchange - rate prediction. This paper focuses on the Greek drachma using daily observations of the drachma rates against four major currencies, namely the U.S. Dollar (USD), the Deutsche Mark (DM), the French Franc (FF) and the British Pound (GBP) for a period of 11 years, aiming at forecasting their short-term course by applying local approximation methods based on both chaotic analysis and neural networks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 17764.
Date of creation: Dec 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in European Research Studies 4.1(1998): pp. 5-33
Key Words: Exchange Rates; Forecasting; Neural Networks;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kim, Benjamin J. C. & Mo, Soowon, 1995. "Cointegration and the long-run forecast of exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 353-359, June.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
- Medio,Alfredo & Gallo,Giampaolo, 1995. "Chaotic Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521484619, April.
- Booth, G. Geoffrey & Kaen, Fred R. & Koveos, Peter E., 1982. "R/S analysis of foreign exchange rates under two international monetary regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 407-415.
- West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995.
"The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October.
- West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Tom Doan, . "WESTCHOTEST: RATS procedure to perform Heteroscedasticity-robust serial correlation test," Statistical Software Components RTS00252, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kenneth D. West & Dongchul Cho, 1994. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
- Marsh, Ian W. & Power, David M., 1996. "A note on the performance of foreign exchange forecasters in a portfolio framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 605-613, April.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Potter, Simon M, 1992. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics: An Introduction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S1-7, Suppl. De.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
- Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Leventakis, John A., 1989. "The effectiveness of devaluation: A general equilibrium assessment with reference to Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-271.
- Pavlos Karadeloglou & Christos Papazoglou & George Zombanakis, 1998. "Is the Exchange Rate an Effective Anti-inflationary Policy Instrument?," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 2(1), pages 47-72, Summer.
- Panayiotis Diamantis & George Kouretas, . "Exchange Rate Determination: Empirical For The Greek Drachma," Working Papers 9504, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.