Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective

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Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective

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Stavarek, Daniel

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Daniel Stavarek

Abstract

This paper estimates the exchange market pressure (EMP) in four Central European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) over the period 1993-2006. Therefore, it is one of very few studies focused on this region and the very first paper applying concurrently model-dependent as well as model-independent approach to the EMP estimation on these countries. The results obtained suggest that the approaches lead to inconsistent findings. They often differ in identification of the principal development trends as well as magnitude and direction of the pressure. The paper provides evidence that a shift in the exchange rate regime towards the quasi-fixed ERM II should not stimulate EMP to grow. However, it is highly probable that some episodes of the excessive EMP will make the fulfillment of the exchange rate stability criterion more difficult in all countries analyzed.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12079.

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Date of creation: 10 Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12079

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-12-21 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2008-12-21 (Central Banking)
NEP-EEC-2008-12-21 (European Economics)
NEP-IFN-2008-12-21 (International Finance)
NEP-MAC-2008-12-21 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2008-12-21 (Monetary Economics)
NEP-TRA-2008-12-21 (Transition Economics)

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Stavarek, Daniel & Dohnal, Marek, 2009. "Exchange Market Pressure in Central Europe: An Application of the Girton-Roper Model," MPRA Paper 15744, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

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