Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective
AbstractThis paper estimates the exchange market pressure (EMP) in four Central European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) over the period 1993-2006. Therefore, it is one of very few studies focused on this region and the very first paper applying concurrently model-dependent as well as model-independent approach to the EMP estimation on these countries. The results obtained suggest that the approaches lead to inconsistent findings. They often differ in identification of the principal development trends as well as magnitude and direction of the pressure. The paper provides evidence that a shift in the exchange rate regime towards the quasi-fixed ERM II should not stimulate EMP to grow. However, it is highly probable that some episodes of the excessive EMP will make the fulfillment of the exchange rate stability criterion more difficult in all countries analyzed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12079.
Date of creation: 10 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Exchange Market Pressure; Model-dependent Approach; Model-independent Approach; European Union; Euro-candidate Countries;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-12-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-12-21 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2008-12-21 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-2008-12-21 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2008-12-21 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-12-21 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2008-12-21 (Transition Economics)
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